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Curve Advisor

Focusing on tail risks.

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Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesWeekly
Issues169Founded5 years agoLast Issue7 days ago
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Latest Issues

The Most Important Week of Trading

I thought I would take a little break from the Zen post(s) and discuss some potential market drivers that I have not heard much discussion about in the news circles. October 28 (FOMC meeting) thru November 4 (day after Election Day) will be...

7 days ago
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Zen and the Art of Curve Trading, Part 1

I had previously written about why we decided to move to Las Vegas (https://curveadvisor.substack.com/p/leaving-for-las-vegas). We dropped off my youngest at college and during the 19-hour drive from Dallas to Las Vegas, I had time to refle...

14 days ago
1
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Iran Equilibrium Risks

I do not see the US attacking Iranian threats to the Strait of Hormuz as an escalation – just a measure to maintain the status quo (at a minimum). It makes complete sense in the equilibrium scenario to attack Iranian offensive capability th...

21 days ago
1
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Warsh Tells

I was expecting Warsh to sound a little hawkish, to make up for what he admitted were some “mistakes” during the first parts of his tenure. In particular, he sounded less committed to the inflation mandate at the last meeting.

I was expect...

a month ago
1
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Iran Equilibrium?

Remember when we used to: (1) threaten the destruction of the other party, (2) give random deadlines for no reason, and (3) claim that we won and are in control of everything?

Remember when we used to: (1) threaten the destruction of the o...

a month ago
1
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  • Curve Advisor

    STIR prop trader focusing on assessing market probabilities and using nonlinear payout structures.

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