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Macro Market Notes

Jan J. J. Groen

A collection of notes on topics relevant for macro policy discussions and market views, leveraging the policy/market experience, economic intuition and econometric skills of an accomplished macroeconomist. Views are those of the author only.

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Latest Issues

Sep. Personal Income & Outlays: Still Solid

The September Personal Income and Outlays report provides a good insight into the U.S. consumer as well as inflationary pressures going forward. This note presents some of these insights. Note that the release of this report was delayed to...

6 months ago
1
1

September CPI and October FOMC Preview

This post reviews trends from the September CPI report and previews the upcoming October FOMC meeting.

Key takeaways:

  • Core CPI inflation eased in September with trimmed mean CPI measures also slowing over the month. However, over long...
7 months ago
3

August Personal Income & Outlays: Picking Up the Pace

The August Personal Income and Outlays report provides a good insight into the U.S. consumer as well as inflationary pressures going forward. This note presents some of these insights. Note that this report incorporated the annual NIPA benc...

8 months ago
1

September 2025 FOMC Meeting Postmortem

As expected, the FOMC lowered the Fed funds rate target range by 25bps to 4%-4.25% and it used the post-meeting forecast updates to signal it continues to project the economy to be in stagflation mode this year. We likely will have one more...

8 months ago
2

August CPI & Retail Sales and Sep FOMC Preview

This post reviews trends from the August CPI and retail sales reports and previews the upcoming September FOMC meeting.

Key takeaways:

  • Core CPI inflation ticked up in August with trimmed mean CPI measures remaining elevated. These tri...
8 months ago
1

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  • Jan J. J. Groen

    I am an accomplished macroeconomist with a broad experience gained in senior roles at reputed policy and markets institutions. Formerly NY Fed and Bank of England. Interests: #inflation #centralbanks #markets #economy #forecasting. Views are my own.

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