大寶雪梨來鴻
Cheung Tai-bo 張大寶《大寶雪梨來鴻》是住在雪梨的香港人，用香港味繁體中文，寫給香港、在澳港人，以及所有想認真理解澳洲的華文讀者。這裡不賣移民夢，也不做旅遊指南。我們談的是：當你已經有了身份、有了工作，下一步你需要思考什麼？私校學費如何變成階級門票、RBA加息對你 mortgage的真實影響、NDIS為何膨脹到財政難以承受、太平洋島國的地緣博弈、臺海風險對你子女未來的意義——這些不是遙遠的政策辯論，而是會直接寫進你未來二十年生活的現實。從數據、制度設計與街頭故事出發，拆解澳洲的政治、經濟、社會與地緣政治。
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only paid issues | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 637 | Subscribers | Read | cheungtaibo.substack.com |
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移民鬼故事：泰萊的文明篩選，解決不了真正的問題
六個月前，一國黨還是澳洲政治的邊緣噪音。現在，紅橋民調顯示四成選民認為一國黨最能處理移民問題，超過工黨、聯盟黨與綠黨的總和。聯盟黨黨魁泰萊（Angus Taylor）讀懂了這個訊號，上週在孟席斯研究中心發表了他上任後第一篇移民政策演講。演講三分鐘後，他已說完自己真正想說的話：「我們的邊境向那些憎恨我們生活方式的人敞開了。」
4.3%失業率：我們將會變得更窮
四月十六日，澳洲統計局公佈三月就業數據：失業率維持4.3%，新增職位 17,900個。數字平穩，毫無懸念。財政部長查默斯（Jim Chalmers）在華盛頓出席 G20財長會議期間，隨即把這份數據當成「勞動市場韌性」的證明，對記者娓娓道來。
布蘭特原油之外，還有一個沒人注意的殺手
澳航上週發出盈利警告，說燃油成本可能額外增加高達八億澳元。很多人的第一反應是：油價不是已經對沖了嗎？澳航確實對沖了——而且對沖了九成的原油暴露。問題是，它對沖的是原油，不是燃油。這兩者之間，差了個煉油廠。
澳洲公積金掌舵人告訴你莊家必贏，還是努力必勝？
前個禮拜大寶《努力無用論》文章的留言區，有位讀者說得一針見血：你們說想要樓價下跌，但真的跌了，又不要走來抱怨負資產。他還說，政府必須改變澳洲人「一定要買獨立屋」的觀念，從建築質量、分層業主法規、買家優惠三方面下重藥。
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源自香港的澳洲工業界策略師、澳洲經濟政治地緣政治分析者，即「冷氣軍師」。悲情愛華頓和聖路易紅雀球迷。
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