Forecasting
Nuño SempereA monthly newsletter on prediction markets and forecasting platforms: what they're up to, where they are going, and what they should be doing.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Monthly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 64 | Founded | 6 years ago | Last Issue | a month ago |
| Active | |||||
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forecasting.substack.comLatest Issues
Vignettes from my life, romance math, Saudi Arabia vs United Arab Emirates, and cheap Chinese watches || Forecasting newsletter III/2026
Purveying high quality decorrelated tokens
I. So I’m chilling in Asunción, and I meet this cute yoga teacher. We have a short relationship, and I find her very attractive, given as how she had mastered a tradition of knowledge orthogonal t...
AI 2040, forecasting founders, capital allocation, the end of OpenPhilanthropy's forecasting programme || Forecasting newsletter
AI 2040 // Forecasting projects and founders I feel excited about // Capital allocatioon // The End of OpenPhilanthropy's forecasting grantmaking programme
What will 2040 be at least as wacky as?
Aggressively reorienting the forecasting community towards AI resilience
Forecasting is the art and science of putting probabilities to events and updating them as evidence comes in. Depending on how you draw the boundaries, it might have 5-100K people, be a bit larger than the EA community, but more truth seeki...
Feedback loops for forecasting funding, builders' programs, corporate forecasting || Forecasting newsletter #12/2025
Editorial
I’ve been wondering about the feedback loops for funding in the forecasting ecosystem. Over the last few years, a major funding source for forecasting was philanthropic funding. However, the feedback loops for that were relati...
Prediction market gold rush, legal drama, AI forecasters on the horizon? || Forecasting newsletter #11/2025
What I feel curious about this month
There is a bit of a gold rush in prediction markets right now, spurred by the success of Poolymarket and Kalshi. For instance, here is $150M going into a prediction market fund. Wild!. In this rush,...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Head of foresight at Sentinel, a team covering the top global catastrophic risks each week. Also write a monthly forecasting newsletter at forecasting.substack.com
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