Forecasting
Nuño SempereA monthly newsletter on prediction markets and forecasting platforms: what they're up to, where they are going, and what they should be doing.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Monthly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 62 | Founded | 6 years ago | Last Issue | 4 months ago |
| Active | |||||
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forecasting.substack.comLatest Issues
Aggressively reorienting the forecasting community towards AI resilience
Forecasting is the art and science of putting probabilities to events and updating them as evidence comes in. Depending on how you draw the boundaries, it might have 5-100K people, be a bit larger than the EA community, but more truth seeki...
Feedback loops for forecasting funding, builders' programs, corporate forecasting || Forecasting newsletter #12/2025
Editorial
I’ve been wondering about the feedback loops for funding in the forecasting ecosystem. Over the last few years, a major funding source for forecasting was philanthropic funding. However, the feedback loops for that were relati...
Prediction market gold rush, legal drama, AI forecasters on the horizon? || Forecasting newsletter #11/2025
What I feel curious about this month
There is a bit of a gold rush in prediction markets right now, spurred by the success of Poolymarket and Kalshi. For instance, here is $150M going into a prediction market fund. Wild!. In this rush,...
National security professionals again found not to be calibrated, Swift Centre on UK winter blackout, adj.news' US Political Future Index || Forecasting newsletter #10/2025
Highlights
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Judgmental calibration for 50,408 assessments of uncertainty made by national security professionals, from a new study (a):
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Swift Centre looks at: whether winter blackout (a) could freeze the UK’s Financial Services...
Opportunity markets, AI forecasters, Polymarket’s builders program || Forecasting newsletter #9/2025
Highlights
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AI forecasters not yet here, but soon.
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More sports betting on prediction platforms.
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“Opportunity markets” as a better business model for a foresight startups.
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Polymarket’s builders program continues strong...
Audience Metrics
Subscribers, engagement, traffic and sponsorship for Forecasting.
| Subscribers | Engagement | 68 | Monthly Web Visits | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accepts Sponsors | Estimated Cost per Ad | ||||
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Head of foresight at Sentinel, a team covering the top global catastrophic risks each week. Also write a monthly forecasting newsletter at forecasting.substack.com
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