We are here to shield you from Black Swans, i.e., improbable, high-impact events, and to forecast the global economy. We have been operating actively since 2018, after which not a single major detrimental event has not come as a surprise to our customers.
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Pause
Dear all,
Like I pre-warned you in the Weekly Forecasts 28/2026, I will now pause the service offering of GnS Economics in its totality for three months. This is for the simple reason that we currently lack the manpower to run our services...
The Financial A-bomb known as "Private Credit"
It is so much worse than what we thought
Weekly Forecasts 28/2026
A develoment and primer to a breakpoint analysis in U.S. bank lending
Stagflation is on the horizon
Today, I am just quickly going to comment on the July inflation figures. Forecasts based on the supply chain shock scenario we envisaged at the end of July seem to have performed the best.
Figure 1. Forecasted vs. realized values for month...
The Grand Failure in the Middle East
Part II: The looming oil catastrophe
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Tuomas (PhD. econ) is a CEO of GnS Economics, an independent Helsinki-based macroeconomic consultancy specialized in analyzing and forecasting the risks of the world economy, financial markets and the global geopolitical arena.
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