PhD, CEO, and Associate Professor of Economics. 20 years of training in economics and nearly a lifetime of training in geopolitics. I provide you with an unyielding and uncensored view.
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How close is the U.S. recession?
It is likely to be much closer than you (we) think
Today, I want to continue a bit on the failure of our forecasting model. In the Weekly Forecasts 21/2026, we had warned on the approaching failure by noting that:
The SoH looks to reopen (again) shortly; So what?
How much and at what quality oil can the U.S. can withdraw from its strategic reserve?
Iran and Oman are reportedly closing in on the signing of (yet another) deal concerning the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, or SoH. We have been here...
Forecasting failure
Our year-long test for a forecasting model has ended, in a failure. In mid-June 2025, I build a “simple” forecasting model for GnS Economics for forecasting the medium-term path of the U.S. real Gross Domestic Product, or real GDP. It yield...
The Grand Failure in the Middle East
Part I: How President Trump screwed everything up with his "negotiation strategy"
My Saturday’s piece stoked a slew of comments. Few replies.
Towards the endgame in the U.S.-Iran war
The strategic dominance of Iran
I decided to unpause my newsletter two days early because the escalation cycle is ramping up in the Middle East. We at GnS Economics have not been silent, but have published five warnings during the past mon...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
I am an economist (PhD), forecaster, entrepreneur and a CEO of GnS Economics, and I also hold a title of Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Helsinki. I analyze and forecast economic, geopolitical, and financial developments.
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