Good Judgment News and Insights
Good JudgmentActionable, Early Insight with the Science of Superforecasting
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 47 | Subscribers | Read | goodjudgment.substack.com |
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Latest Issues
Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.
What Superforecasters Actually Said About ForecastBench
Every few months, a new AI benchmark result gets journalists excited. Claims spike, the headlines write themselves, and nuance gets left behind.
Meet Superforecaster® Malcolm Murray
Malcolm Murray is an AI risk management expert who qualified as a Superforecaster in Season 3 of the Good Judgment Project. As Chapter Lead for the International AI Safety Report, he is a core part of the team leading the work of 100 global...
Meet the Winners of the 2025 University Forecasting Challenge
From August to December 2025, students from universities around the world tested their forecasting abilities on GJ Open. The 2025 University Forecasting Challenge asked participants to make predictions on topics ranging from economic indica...
Testing Polymarket’s “Most Accurate” Claim
Figure 1. The averaged meeting Brier scores (lower is better).
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Authors
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See the future sooner: Actionable, early insight and better decisions start with the science of Superforecasting
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