Good Judgment News and Insights
Good JudgmentActionable, Early Insight with the Science of Superforecasting
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Monthly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 18 | Subscribers | Read | goodjudgment.substack.com |
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Latest Issues
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Tribute to Daniel Kahneman
“Superforecasters are better than others at finding relevant information—possibly because they are smarter, more motivated, and more experienced at making these kinds of forecasts… Superforecasters are less noisy than…even trained teams.”
Superforecasting the Origins of the Covid-19 Pandemic
Forecast histogram of each Superforecaster's probability of the natural zoonosis hypothesis.
Superforecasters’ Toolbox: Beliefs as Hypotheses
Nine years after the conclusion of the IARPA forecasting tournament, one Good Judgment discovery remains the most consequential idea in today’s dynamic world of forecasting: Superforecasters. The concept of Superforecasting has at its heart...
Superforecasters vs FT Readers: Results of an Informal Contest in the Financial Times
In early 2023, the Financial Times launched an informal contest that pitted the predictive prowess of the FT’s readership against that of Good Judgment’s Superforecasters. The contest involved forecasting key developments in the year ahead,...
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Authors
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See the future sooner: Actionable, early insight and better decisions start with the science of Superforecasting
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