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Harry Lambert

Notes, books, interviews

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Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesWeekly
Issues55Founded6 years agoLast Issue2 months ago
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Latest Issues

Day 55: MAD in the Strait

  • Here’s a theory – see what you think of it.

    • Iran and the US will not be forced to negotiate any sort of lasting peace until the price of oil rises materially. Let’s assume it has to exceed any wartime high so far: that would mean >$1...
2 months ago
7

Day 52: The end of the beginning

“I know you’re worried about it, but it’s going to be OK,” the president said. Mr. Carlson asked how he knew. “Because it always is,” Mr. Trump replied. – The New York Times, 7 April 2026


“Small showers last long, but sudden storms...

2 months ago
12
2

Day 44: Vance walks

  • Vance walks away in Islamabad. I didn’t know the Americans had it in them. Where does that leave us?

    • The track below shows the path this morning of a Pakistani-flagged oil tanker, SHALAMAR, into the Strait of Hormuz. The good news: t...
2 months ago
14
1

Day 40: What ceasefire?

  • Late programming today as the consequences of Trump’s ceasefire unfold and his nominal deal unwinds.

    • An unknown number of people have been killed in a series of rapid and unannounced strikes by Israel across Lebanon. Reports range fr...
2 months ago
9
2

"We will find out tonight"

  • The US has hit Kharg Island, Israel has hit an Iranian railway bridge, Iran has hit a major Saudi industrial city, and three gunmen have been shot in Istanbul by Turkish police after trying to breach the Israeli consulate. The war in Iran...
2 months ago
13

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