
Market trends and investing insights
| Platform | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Twice weekly | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 25 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 10 days ago |
| Active | |||||

How a single quarter rearranged the four horsemen threat model, the valuation, and the way I think about this business.
Nebius reported Q1 earnings yesterday and the story changed significantly. In fact, the story and underlying numbers ch...
Part 1 of the AI 2030 series: Modelling out Anthropic's revenue growth to try and size the 2030 AI economy
Anthropic’s annualised run-rate went from $30 billion in April to $45 billion in early May. Roughly $15 billion of net ARR added in...
Peter Lynch said something along the lines of “you should always have your money invested in your best ideas”.
I’ve followed that principle, and it’s worked well.
The average return from my publications is over 45% in my first year. (See...
Sometimes the discipline isn't refusing to pay up. Sometimes it's recognising when the framework you're using can't see what's in front of you. And sometimes that makes you look a little bit crazy.
Quick housekeeping before we get into Roc...
I'm more confident in Nebius today than I was three months ago. Substantially more confident. And yet my base case valuation just dropped by more than $10.
That is what I want to unpack in this piece.
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The writers behind this newsletter.
Average return of 40% for all 2025 published research. Focussed on AI, compounders, value investing, and occasionally miniature wargaming businesses (Games Workshop).
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