Market Musings
Vasileios GkionakisNewsletter on global macro and market strategy. Equities, rates, FX, commodities
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 5 | Founded | 3 years ago | Last Issue | 3 years ago |
| Active | |||||
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vasileiosgkionakis.substack.comLatest Issues
US Fiscal Policy Is Still on a Slippery Slope
Summary
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US fiscal policy is extremely loose and the most misaligned with underlying economic dynamics since 1980.
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Despite Wednesday’s announcement, the US budget deficit appears to be some 5ppts (of GDP) wider relative to emplo...
The first warning but clear sign the UK is heading to a recession
UK labour market data were soft and give the first clear sign the economy is heading to a recession. The market has responded accordingly: GBP/USD has sold off, down by nearly 0.5% on the day, the BoE terminal rate has come off by 3bps, UK...
Market Still Underestimates 2024 BoE Cuts – Sell GBP/USD, Receive Rates, Bullish FTSE 100/EuroSTOXX 50
Summary
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It is a big week for UK data: monthly fluctuations are hard to predict but, overall, the releases will likely confirm further labour market loosening and falling inflation.
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The BoE has re-priced lower, but this could go...
CPI data will not force the Fed's hand
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Thursday’s release of US inflation data (Sep) showed headline CPI rising by 3.7% YoY (0.4% MoM) and core CPI by 4.1% YoY (0.3% MoM); the latter was in line with co...
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