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| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
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arkominaresearch.substack.comLatest Issues
Sep 2026 PCE Inflation Estimate
Sep PCE goes out on Thursday at 8:30 am ET. I have the full unrounded estimates for headline, core, and trimmed mean.
My average error since early 2024 is now -0.6 bp for headline and -1 bp for core.
Full unrounded estimates and the short...
Are Semis in a Bubble? The Valuation Inversion and What Comes Next
Over the last 4 months, we’ve seen a sea change in the AI narrative.
Over the last 4 months, we’ve seen a sea change in the AI narrative. We’ve gone from “AI demand is strong, supply is tight, the buildout has years to run to, and the core...
Hot CPI and PPI, Cool Bond Market: Why the Inflation Scare Is Mostly Statistics
Last week we got hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI prints, and all of a sudden, everyone is worried that inflation might be “taking off”.
Last week we got hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI prints, and all of a sudden, everyone is worried tha...
Sep 2026 CPI Estimate
On Wednesday, Oct 14, at 8:30 am ET, we will get the long-awaited Sep CPI. This report is particularly important for determining what the Fed will do in the future.
On Wednesday, Oct 14, at 8:30 am ET, we will get the long-awaited Sep CPI....
September Jobs Were Weaker Than the Fed Will Admit
Sep Employment Report was weaker than expected. All 3 key metrics (nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings) were weaker than expected.
The 3-month trend is softer than the “picking up” story some Fed officials have...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Marko is a founder of Arkomina, based in London, UK. He has over 17 years of financial markets experience. Prior to founding Arkomina, Marko was an equity broker, investment advisor, investment manager and chief bank macroeconomist.
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