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Jul 2026 PCE Inflation Forecast
Next Wednesday (Aug 26), we will get the Jul PCE Inflation, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.
Next Wednesday (Aug 26), we will get the Jul PCE Inflation, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.
July CPI Shows Inflation Outside of Gasoline Is Already at Multi-Year Lows
A week ago, we got the Jul CPI, which was largely in line with market estimates.
A week ago, we got the Jul CPI, which was largely in line with market estimates. This was enough to bring down market probabilities for Fed rate hikes in Sep...
Jul 2026 CPI Estimate
On Wed, Aug 12, we will get the Jul CPI. Every CPI is one of the 2 most important reports each month, but this one is even more important because it can determine what the Fed does in Sep.
My average error for estimating headline CPI (base...
July Jobs Expose a Fragile Labor Market and a Fed Already Behind the Curve
The Jul Employment Report on Friday highlighted just how vulnerable and weak the labor market is.
While the market still expects rate hikes down the road, the labor market and core CPI data indicate that the Fed is already behind the curve...
FOMC: The Market Is Looking at the Wrong 9-9 Split
The Fed meeting tomorrow could be extremely important for the markets.
The Fed meeting tomorrow could be extremely important for the markets. The rate decision, statement, and Warsh’s press conference are the three things that matter.
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Marko is a founder of Arkomina, based in London, UK. He has over 17 years of financial markets experience. Prior to founding Arkomina, Marko was an equity broker, investment advisor, investment manager and chief bank macroeconomist.
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