
在瘋狂世界,做個清醒的長期主義者。每週提煉華爾街頂級 Podcast 與好書精華,同步升級「財富 x 認知」
| Platform | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily | |
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| Issues | 124 | Founded | 6 months ago | Last Issue | 6 days ago |
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同一座機櫃裡,記憶體、光纖、電源、組裝五個環節都在飆,命運卻天差地別。在 Whale Rock 做了二十年科技股的 Alex Sacerdote,用一套穿越多輪週期的尺,分辨哪一層是真翻身、哪一層只是缺貨幻象——這篇,拆給你他怎麼照。
過去三年,晶片龍頭輝達(NVIDIA)、晶圓代工霸主台積電,還是各種標榜「賣鏟子」的設備廠,股價幾乎一路狂飆。
二月,FedEx 給 2029 立了張大支票:本業利潤和現金流都要大增;六月分拆後的第一份成績單,卻是目標重申、利潤率先掉。這檔剛創新高的轉型股,該追、該等,還是已錯過?這篇幫你自己判斷。
FedEx 剛交出一份超出預期的財報——這一季每股盈餘和營收都打敗了華爾街預期,過去一年股價更漲了約九成、不久前才創下新高。照理說該歡呼,但財報一出,股價盤後一度急殺約 6%,隔天卻幾乎全部收回、收平。市場顯然拿不定主意。
摩根.豪瑟在《一如既往》裡說:每一個價格,都是今天的數字,乘上明天的故事。這一集,我們把這把『故事溢價尺』交到你手上,再用 Palantir 走一遍——看清你付的價裡,有多少其實是故事。
2021 年,一家賣電玩光碟、眼看就要倒閉的公司——GameStop——在 Reddit 上被一群散戶講成了一場「軋空華爾街」的聖戰。故事傳開,股價像失控般往上衝,它的市值一度衝上 110 億美元。
管理 87 億美元科技基金、三年年化大幅跑贏大盤的 Dom Rizzo 說:AI 不會殺光軟體,但會把它劈成兩半——你手上那幾檔,是會被焊得更牢的,還是會被沖成水管的?
你最討厭的那套公司系統,正在替你篩選 AI 股
對沖基金 Atreides 投資長 Gavin Baker 說,要判斷這輪 AI 會不會泡沫,別盯股價——電會被資本主義解決,真正的關卡是晶圓;而短缺裡漲最兇的,未必是真贏家。你手上那檔,是哪一種?
過去三年最會漲的那批 AI 股,在 2026 年三四月那場大跌裡被一起砸了下來。但到了六月,大盤已重返高點、不久前更創下新高,連當時跌得最兇的 AI 名字,多數也重新逼近高位。
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你的知識提煉者。將厚重的華爾街頂級訪談、經典硬書與深度財報,還原成你自己也能上手的實戰工具。在瘋狂的市場裡,陪你過濾 99% 雜訊,做個清醒的長期主義者。
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