Michael Spencer
FX, macro & derivatives insights from 25+ years in global markets covering hedge funds across London and Asia. Writing on volatility, liquidity, positioning and trade expression. Japan & Classical Music enthusiast, & keeping fit.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 47 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 12 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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mspen.substack.comLatest Issues
Core PCE: Is the Fed Credibility Trade About to be Tested?
Editor’s Note
Earlier this week I published a research note examining a simple question:
When markets price a more restrictive Federal Reserve, what has historically been the best trade?
This Substack is reader-supported. To receive n...
Renewed Fed Credibility: What’s the Best Trade?
Testing how rates, FX, commodities and equities respond when markets price a more restrictive Federal Reserve. Core PCE will be a test this week..
A client remarked recently that the sharp repricing in SOFR futures should be bearish for Go...
Mr Warsh could be a lifeline for the USD’s longer term value.
Apart from the notable flattening of yield curves post the FOMC, a relatively contained reaction in markets - the USD stronger by 1%, but generally ‘Volatility’ is lower - the market is (generally ) long USDs ..
USDJPY Realised volatility...
US Basic Balance - shows the inflow for AI/ SpaceX?
and now its over..what next..
Perhaps also flows into SpaceX
Tech and the US Current Account Deficit
and why US real rates remain artificially low
Neil Woodford made the good point that Globalisation is still alive, with the expanding Trade surplus China still enjoys vs Europe. Andrew Hunt expands on how Asian countries are helping to fin...
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FX, macro & derivatives insights from 25+ years in global markets covering hedge funds across London and Asia. Writing on volatility, liquidity, positioning and trade expression. Japan & Classical Music enthusiast, & keeping fit.
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