
Independent, irreverent research on energy, macro, and geopolitics.
| Platform | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 130 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 14 days ago |
| Active | |||||

Brazil votes tomorrow, and whoever wins inherits a diesel price that’s fiction in two directions at once. Petrobras charges fuel distributors 3.31 reais a litre at the refinery gate; the federal government tops that up with a 2.12-real subs...
A month ago I bought the one barrel in the system that doesn’t need a strait.
The company that owns it has since made itself more of that barrel, and the stock has run harder than I’d like going into an add.
On the Sund...
The July short on NextDecade was a bet that the buyers of American gas had quietly changed their minds. Three months on, a sell-side desk has counted how much of that gas is still looking for one.
Two things, a month apar...
I put this pair on in April as a sizing signal rather than a trade, and it has since turned into both. This is where it stands the day before the central bank decides.
The thing the April piece said would happen happened,...
Like anyone who works around commodities or financial markets, I’m juggling my time between the tape and the geopolitics, because every week some tweet, some missile or some article lands with more weight on the scenario than the forecast d...
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The writers behind this newsletter.
research on energy, macroeconomics, and geopolitics.
Most investment theses die on a physical constraint nobody priced - a qualification queue, a separation step, a turbine slot sold years out. I find them before markets do.
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