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Independent, irreverent research on energy, macro, and geopolitics.

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Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesDaily
Issues130Founded2 years agoLast Issue14 days ago
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Latest Issues

Will Petrobras Raise Diesel 50 Per Cent After Brazil's Runoff?

Brazil votes tomorrow, and whoever wins inherits a diesel price that’s fiction in two directions at once. Petrobras charges fuel distributors 3.31 reais a litre at the refinery gate; the federal government tops that up with a 2.12-real subs...

14 days ago
13

Trade Update - Long Suncor Energy

A month ago I bought the one barrel in the system that doesn’t need a strait.

The company that owns it has since made itself more of that barrel, and the stock has run harder than I’d like going into an add.

What printed

On the Sund...

17 days ago
10

Trade Update - Short Nextdecade Energy

The July short on NextDecade was a bet that the buyers of American gas had quietly changed their minds. Three months on, a sell-side desk has counted how much of that gas is still looking for one.

What printed

Two things, a month apar...

17 days ago
8

Trade Update - Short Turkish equities, Long Dollar-Lira

I put this pair on in April as a sizing signal rather than a trade, and it has since turned into both. This is where it stands the day before the central bank decides.

What printed

The thing the April piece said would happen happened,...

17 days ago
14
1

Iran Spends the Strait, Russia Collects the Coupon

Like anyone who works around commodities or financial markets, I’m juggling my time between the tape and the geopolitics, because every week some tweet, some missile or some article lands with more weight on the scenario than the forecast d...

18 days ago
15
4

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  • Riko Kardamow

    research on energy, macroeconomics, and geopolitics.

  • William David

    Most investment theses die on a physical constraint nobody priced - a qualification queue, a separation step, a turbine slot sold years out. I find them before markets do.

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