Mike Smitka on the Auto Industry, Japan, and China
Mike SmitkaI write about the global auto industry, with occasional posts on the economies of China and Japan, and on economics as a science.
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My GERPISA Presentation
This is a slightly revised version of what I presented. One change was to emphasize that VW has a higher share of ICE sales because, while its total sales fell, they fell less than the overall ICE market in China.
Smitka Gerpisa Paris 2026...
Can Legacy Survive? (IV) - Volkswagen
Introduction
As I prepare to head to Europe for the annual GERPISA auto industry conference – this year in Paris – we’ll be talking formally and informally about the rise of the Chinese industry. From a European perspective, one way to...
BYD loses money on cars
Overview
BYD is the world’s #2 battery maker, with 2026Q1 sales of about 60GW. That makes it 30% the size of the #1 firm, CATL (宁德时代). If we scale BYD’s battery profits as 30% of CATL’s, then BYD makes money on batteries, but loses mon...
Geely: The Strongest Legacy Automotive Player in China
Just out: my article on the Chinese auto industry with a focus on Geely, on SeekingAlpha. Behind a paywall, but for investors in the crowd you may be a subscriber. Here’s the link to the article, Geely: The Long-Term Growth Story Remains In...
Can Legacy Survive (Part III)
Introduction
In the first part, I presented an empirical definition of “legacy:” the top players in the Chinese domestic market in 2020, before plug-in vehicles were more than a small, subsidized segment of the market. Those firms need...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
I'm a retired economist focused on the global auto industry. I also taught about the Japanese and Chinese economies for 30+ years, with languages and 8 years in Asia. I've visited 100+ auto & supplier factories in Europe, the Americas and Asia. Etc
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