Oly on AI
Oliver Sourbut, Ben GoldhaberWhich ideas give me an edge in predicting - and shaping - tech and AI progress? I share some of them with you here. AI is *the* frontier technology, and it's set to reshape our world. Let's make it for the better!
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
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| Issues | 31 | Founded | 3 years ago | Last Issue | 6 days ago |
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oliversourbut.netLatest Issues
Lab Leaks, Black Holes, and Eggs
At FLF, we’re running a competition to find the best workflows and methodologies for using AI to produce reliable, trustworthy knowledge bases, grounded in real-world cases. We’re open-minded on the types of submissions we receive and on ho...
The main impact from automated AI production: concentration of power?
There’s a lot of talk about automated AI R&D and the like. It’s been discussed since at least 1965 when statistician I.J. Good coined the term ‘intelligence explosion’:
an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there...
A (Slightly) Mechanistic Theory for Exponentially Increasing AI Time Horizons?
One chart from 2025 has become perhaps the most (in)famous in modern AI commentary.
For those in the know, ‘the METR graph’1 is unusually compelling because it achieves what so few measures of AI progress have achieved: a somewhat meaningf...
Engineering a Safer World
Engineering a safer world.
I, and I imagine many of my readers, are eager to contribute to that effort1.
It’s also, conveniently, the title of a book!
Engineering a safer world, by Nancy Leveson
It’s not a book by me… but nevertheless I...
Reinforcement learning scaling might incentivise hidden reasoning architectures for AI
In short: the transformer architecture brought massive scale to AI, and also provided partial guarantees of ‘reasoning out loud’, an unprecedentedly interpretable situation for AI. Reinforcement learning (RL) may be less compatible with the...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Researcher@FLF. Formerly UK AI Safety Institute and Oxford. Father of one little legend. I like pizza, friends, symphonies, sentient flourishing, and boardgames.
Posting in a personal capacity, all views are my own and don't reflect my employer unless stated otherwise, all takes should be treated as correct even when all evidence is to the contrary.
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