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P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.

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Latest Issues

Waiting For The Miracle

There Were Lots Of Invitations, And I Know You Sent Me Some

In 1917, three children in Fatima, Portugal claimed to have seen the Virgin Mary. They promised she would perform a miracle on a certain day in October. Nearly 100,000 pilgrims...

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Never Cross a River Four Feet Deep on Average

[This is a guest post by 2024 ACX grantee Sasha Putilin. I encourage any ACX grantees who are interested to write about their projects. - SA]

The results of my ACX Grants 2024 project are in.

The project attempted to replicate the 2023 st...

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Open Thread 438

This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial subreddit, Discord, and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world. Most content is free, some is subscr...

8 days ago
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My AI Opinions

I recently had a minor spat over someone misinterpreting my AI beliefs (see section marked “Update” at the bottom here), so I thought I would list them in one place, so I can refer people when they ask.

Timelines1

Define AGI as AI in...

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Hidden Open Thread 437.5

...

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Authors

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  • Scott Alexander
  • Sasha Putilin

    Psychotechnology: metarational approach. Psychedelics, meditation, neurotech, consciousness research. Plus occasional writing advice.

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