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Out of Sample is a running set of notes and data-driven analyses on international and European economic policy and current affairs, aimed at making sense of a shifting global economy.

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Latest Issues

The Iran War, Energy Price Shocks, and the Green Transition

Energy Markets and Inflation Risk

ECB Executive Board Member Frank Elderson wrote last week in the Financial Times that Europe’s energy dependence had become one of the critical vulnerabilities of its economy, that recent energy price...

a month ago
14
1

The 2026 Energy Shock Through the Lens of the Inflation Debate We Already Had

Oil prices surged to almost $120 last week as the conflict spread to major energy infrastructure and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries around one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows. By yesterday, Brent had briefly fallen ba...

2 months ago
3
3

Currency Power and Geopolitical Risk

Dire Straits

Since the US and Israel launched their coordinated strike on Iran, Brent crude has risen from around $70 to above $100 a barrel, briefly touching $120 before settling, as of this writing, in the range of $105–$110. Dutch T...

2 months ago
3

The Geography of Europe’s Manufacturing Exposure to Trade

Beijing, Then Washington

German Chancellor Merz spent the past two weeks travelling first to Beijing and Hangzhou, then heading to Washington a few days later to meet Trump.

China remains the key market for Germany, with bilateral goo...

3 months ago
7

Reinventing the Single Market for a Geoeconomic Age

European leaders will meet in an informal retreat on Thursday to reflect on the future of the Single Market. In his invitation letter, European Council President António Costa framed the gathering as a moment to give the Single Market the s...

4 months ago
9

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  • Andrei Sterescu

    Economist @ European Commission | Formerly European Central Bank | European \ud83c\uddea\ud83c\uddfa and International Economic Policy | Views are my own and do not represent those of my employer

  • Mihai Chereji
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