Making sense of the global economy and financial markets
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only paid issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 305 | Founded | 5 years ago | Last Issue | 10 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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theovershoot.coLatest Issues
France is the Biggest Loser in the Global Rates Reset
In much of the rich world, the uptick in the cost of capital corresponds to a relatively benign change in (nominal) growth trajectories. This is less true for Europe, and especially for France.
Borrowing costs are up everywhere. And France...
The Fed Finally Gets It
Tariffs, Hormuz, and fiscal policy are not good reasons to hike. The underlying growth trend and the asymmetric sensitivity of private sector spending to the level of interest rates are.
The test of whether you are genuinely sorry for a mi...
Just Waiting for Disinflation is Not Enough
The Fed staff has been assuming that inflation would eventually return to 2% without anyone having to do anything, and this has infected the thinking of policymakers.
Hope is not a strategy. Yet “hope” seems to be the only idea that some F...
Rising Bond Yields Are Good, Actually
The simplest explanation is also the most benign: traders are becoming increasingly confident that the lost decades are over.
Yields on longer-term U.S. bonds are now high enough that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent feels compelled to lec...
AI, Productivity, and Rates: Part 2
If new technologies are actually able to boost productivity growth over a sustained period, the 1990s experience suggests that real interest rates are currently lower than they would (and should) be.
It is possible that we are on the cusp...
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Trying to understand how things work, with a focus on economics, finance, and history.
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