Making sense of the global economy and financial markets
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 303 | Founded | 5 years ago | Last Issue | 8 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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theovershoot.coLatest Issues
Just Waiting for Disinflation is Not Enough
The Fed staff has been assuming that inflation would eventually return to 2% without anyone having to do anything, and this has infected the thinking of policymakers.
Hope is not a strategy. Yet “hope” seems to be the only idea that some F...
Rising Bond Yields Are Good, Actually
The simplest explanation is also the most benign: traders are becoming increasingly confident that the lost decades are over.
Yields on longer-term U.S. bonds are now high enough that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent feels compelled to lec...
AI, Productivity, and Rates: Part 2
If new technologies are actually able to boost productivity growth over a sustained period, the 1990s experience suggests that real interest rates are currently lower than they would (and should) be.
It is possible that we are on the cusp...
AI, Productivity, and Rates: Part I
Even if AI is disinflationary, the cost of capital might need to rise to balance out the higher prospective returns on new investments. But first: is productivity even accelerating?
Two videos you may be interested in from my recent trip t...
U.S. Inflation Is Not Really Slowing
Freakish declines in motor vehicle insurance, phone bills, and jewelry are probably not indicative of any change in underlying trends. Plus: more on how the memory shortage is affecting PCE.
It is perhaps fitting that the official consumer...
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Trying to understand how things work, with a focus on economics, finance, and history.
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