My thoughts on global macro, micro, and everything in between
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 279 | Founded | 3 years ago | Last Issue | 4 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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paulomacro.substack.comLatest Issues
Energy Thoughts, 1994 vibes, Concentration Spin, and the Double Tap
14 Oct 2026
Good morning! The chat daily thread was getting long so here goes…
Tech & Energy, or Tech vs Energy?
Plus a Copper & Palladium Update
There are a few old friends from the past who occasionally reach out with a perspective that makes me want to stop and think. One of them — an old pal in commodities — reached out this weekend to offer a vi...
Snapcounts Emerges as Rolling Crackups Drift Toward...Risk Off?
7 October 2026
Chat thread opener was getting long on charts and commentary so here goes…
Sometimes You Just Have to Look…
...And Stare Some More…
A few weeks ago when I wrote Positioning in Oil and Nasdaq Is All Wrong, I made the case that the short position in crude among speculators was outsized to longs, in contrast to the setup six months ago when specula...
Negative Convexity is Oddly Invisible
Mortgages & Munis in the crossfire
So we have talked about Rolling Crackups a lot lately. In this morning’s chat opener, I described the MXN/JPY carry getting nailed and possibly starting to leak into developed market carry like AUD/JPY.
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Speculation is the search for truth in price and time. Operator in global markets for 20+ years. Trying to see around corners while minimizing mistakes. These are my ramblings.
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