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The Risk Lab

Refael Burton

Risk and probability in the stock markets; second-order thinking, data driven.

Platform
Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesWeekly
Issues12SubscribersRead refaelburton.substack.com

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Latest Issues

Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.

Finance Without Myths: Facts, Judgements and Circular Explanations

Many market explanations, while sounding informative, say nothing.

24 days ago
16
7

A Short Manifesto: On Consensus, Edge and Investment Theses

Edge in markets is fundamentally different than edge in other fields.

a month ago
9
4

Finance Without Myths: Framing, Risk and the Fake Lottery Ticket

Loss aversion and risk aversion are the most common instincts shaping investor behavior. Investors try to manage risk and loss by sizing positions carefully, choosing investments with limited downside, and avoiding high-risk assets.

a month ago
19
11

Finance Without Myths: Predictive Power and the Three Logical Mistakes of Value Investors

Value investing, like every investing strategy, has a specific approach and makes specific claims. Many value investors make logical errors when evaluating these claims, and this article highlights some common mistakes.

2 months ago
12
10

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Authors

The writers behind this newsletter.

  • Refael Burton

    Risk and probability in the stock markets; second-order thinking, data driven. Yeshiva educated.

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