Scarcity Thinker
Agisilaos PapadogiannisInvesting in AI bottlenecks: assets, markets, portfolios.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 68 | Founded | 10 months ago | Last Issue | 4 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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scarcitythinker.substack.comLatest Issues
The Bottleneck Just Moved Twice in Drug Development
TL;DR: Bringing a new pill to market involves two distinct phases: drug discovery (finding and designing the molecule) and clinical development (testing it in humans). For decades, both phases moved at roughly the same glacial pace. AlphaFo...
The Capability Tax: why the strongest LLM is often not the right one
I have stopped using the strongest large language model for most of my work.
Not because it is bad. It is, by any measure, the most capable writing and reasoning assistant I have ever had access to. I stopped using it because it kept getti...
Where Did the Crypto Bid Go?
Bitcoin entered 2026 around $93,000. As of this week it trades near $80,000. That is roughly twenty percent of capital erased in five months for what was supposed to be the cycle’s flagship trade. Over the same period, the VanEck Semiconduc...
The Bottleneck Beneath the Chatbot
TL;DR
Everyone is watching AI benchmark rankings. The real competition is on the cost curve, and it is brutal. Prices have collapsed 80% in a year, Chinese models are pricing below what Western labs can sustainably match, and the only...
The Co-Location Trade: The Nuclear Cheat Code Fueling the AI Boom
TL;DR:
I keep hearing about advanced nuclear, but it is a 2030s story. The AI power deficit is a 2020s emergency.
Independent Power Producers (IPPs) are using “behind the meter” co-location to bypass broken, five-year gr...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Investing in AI bottlenecks. Metals, equities, crypto. Engineer turned finance researcher (PhD + MBA). No monocultures, no hype.
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