Stranger Apologies
Kevin DorstPhilosopher at MIT, trying to convince people that their opponents are more reasonable than they think.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 28 | Subscribers | Read | kevindorst.substack.com |
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Latest Issues
Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.
Centrists are (probably) less biased
TLDR: Which side is more responsive to political evidence? Some empirical studies suggest the left; others suggest the center. The debate is ongoing, but some very general dynamics imply that it’s probably the center.
Ideological Bayesians
TLDR: It’s often said that Bayesian updating is unbiased and converges to the truth—and, therefore, that biases must emerge from non-Bayesian sources. That’s wrong. For agents like us, updating on our total evidence is impossible—instead, w...
Representativeness is Rational When Memory is Limited
TLDR: The representativeness heuristic is the tendency to think that outcomes are more likely when they’re more representative of the population that they come from. Though it’s often thought to be irrational, it may be the result of ration...
Bayesians Commit the Gambler's Fallacy
TLDR: Rational people who start out uncertain about an (in fact independent) causal process and then learn from unbiased data will rule out “streaky” hypotheses more quickly than “switchy” hypotheses. As a result, they’ll commit the gambler...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
MIT philosopher and cognitive scientist. Works on bias, rationality, and convincing people that their opponents are more reasonable than they think. more
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