Stranger Apologies
Kevin DorstPhilosopher at MIT, trying to convince people that their opponents are more reasonable than they think.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 35 | Founded | 3 years ago | Last Issue | 3 months ago |
| Active | |||||
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kevindorst.substack.comLatest Issues
Bayesians Commit the Gambler's Fallacy
[This post is based on a recently-published paper]
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Baylee is bored. The fluorescent lights hum. The spreadsheets blur. She needs air.
As she steps outside, she sees the Prius nestled happily in the front spot. Three...
A majority didn't vote for a liberal nightmare
Trump won the popular vote. What does that mean?
Many people seem to think it’s a mandate to enact his most extreme policies: mass deportations, crippling tariffs, national abortion bans, regressive tax cuts, media crackdowns, and so on. C...
No, post-election punditry isn't hindsight bias
Trump won.
Within hours, the pundits had come out.
They proposed diagnoses of why he won: institutional failures, cultural backlash, big money, political unoriginality, or luck.
They pointed to mistakes: Biden shouldn’t have run again,...
Ambiguity Drives Hindsight Bias
[Research conducted with Adam Bear.]
TLDR: You exhibit hindsight bias if learning that something happened increases your estimate for how likely you thought it was. The previous post argued that Bayesians should commit hindsight bias when—...
Only Fools Avoid Hindsight Bias
TLDR: You’re unsure about something. Then it happens—and you think to yourself, “I kinda expected that.” Such hindsight bias is commonly derided as irrational. But any Bayesian who (1) is unsure of exactly what they think, and (2) trusts th...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
MIT philosopher and cognitive scientist. Works on bias, rationality, and convincing people that their opponents are more reasonable than they think. Twitter: https://bit.ly/3p6ktIK
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