
An ex–Goldman Sachs desk head's daily market note, translating what actually moves markets into plain English for people who want to build wealth, not gamble.
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Yesterday’s tells, graded: The 30yr auction was solid, if not spectacular. It priced almost exactly on the when-issued level at 5.618% (0.1bp tail), indirect bidders took 72.3% against 79.5% in September, and the 30yr closed at 5.60%, nowhe...
Yesterdays tells, graded: The 10yr auction was the strongest in years. “The House” sold $39B at 5.300%, the highest auction yield since 2000, and it stopped 1.7bp through the when-issued level. The bid-to-cover was 2.77 - the best since 201...
Let’s begin ny grading yesterday’s tells. The 10yr stayed inside its box, closing around 5.27%, so we got neither a close above 5.34% nor one below 5.18%. The 3yr auction warm-up looked fine on the surface: $58B sold at 4.932%. Look a littl...
Yesterday’s tells, graded. The 10yr box I drew yesterday was tested on day one. The 10yr traded as high as 5.347% after the ISM services report, a hair above Thursday’s 5.34% and its highest level since April 2002, then closed at 5.31%. The...
This desk note took a week off, and the market kindly saved the interesting - and instructive - part for the end of it.
Last Monday’s tells, graded across the whole week. Brent never held $106: November rolled off on Wednesday at $103.50,...
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The writers behind this newsletter.
Ex-Goldman Sachs desk head, Jeet Kune Do instructor, bestselling author of The Tao of Trading. I break down the market each day so you can trade it, not argue about it. Daily desk notes, weekly long-form. Trade setups, not opinions.
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