Forbole 共同創辦人 Terence Lam 的博客。
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 497 | Founded | 3 years ago | Last Issue | 5 days ago |
| Active | Language |  ZH-TW | |||
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terencebitcoinic.substack.comLatest Issues
世界盃的 Factfulness
世界盃至今的一些發展，令我想到一本叫「Factfulness」的暢銷書，這本書探討的話題是大部份人對世界的事實的了解都是錯的，但我今次並非談這本書，而是談世界盃的一些有趣的「factfulness」，即「你一直以為是這樣，事實原來是那樣」。
你還以為美國人不懂踢足球？賽前他們已是世界排名 17。
英格蘭臨完場幾分鐘反勝剛果民主共和國，兩隊都踢得幾好，精彩的一場。如聽香港旁述，他們一直會說「剛果民主共和國」全名，英文就會說「DR Congo」，可能你心諗，「Diu，剛果咪剛...
樓市大熊市
香港樓市真正的熊三大型長期熊市，就像日本那種用十年計的跌市，現在才剛開始，今天的低位就是明天的高位，這個熊市簡直是一個完美的熊市：
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香港由治及興，結構性轉型，打破地產霸權，樓市逆轉，跌了三年幾，然後熊市反彈一年，耗盡餘下的購買力。
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內地全方位收水防止資金外流，這是政策大方向，將餘下有可能的潛在買家都消滅。
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專才計劃的真正數字開始現形，很多人根本從來沒來香港，亦無法或無意願續簽。
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港元聯繫匯率政策人工地令港元維持高水平，同時面對內地內捲通...
當 BTC 成為提款機
目前，資金瘋狂從 ETF 流出，BTC 已成為提款機，這就是 BTC 進入機構視野的雙面刃，水能載舟亦能覆舟。
以最大的 IBIT 的週線圖做例子，它自今年 1 月已一直在 100 週線之下 ( 100 週即約兩年)，觀乎它自 2024 年 1 月上線至今約 2.5 年，幾何肯定大部份參與者在 BTC ETF 的投資已在中度至深度潛水狀態。
利率相對高企限制風險資金的滋生，加上 AI 耗電驚人，即加密貨幣尤其是 BTC 要與 AI 爭奪資本及電力 (及相關的投入)，看牌面...
時辰未到
近日積極研究應市對策 ，因為按 halving 週期，未來幾個月將會定義我們進入下個牛市時的基本盤，這又是一個能決定跨代財富的時機，我將自己想法寫下，一路寫一路修正，既能理順自己的思緒，又能在日後給自己要冷靜時回看。
我在兩週前的 5/6 寫了《熊市第二隻腳 (跟進)》，然後兩天後的 7/6 在 Note 補充看法。過去兩週都發生了不少事，所以我提前檢討操作 (原計劃是等美國國慶後)。我用三個角度看。
一、IPO 潮
抽了大量資金的 SpaceX 上市圓滿...
淝水之戰
淝水之戰（公元383年）是中國歷史上最具決定性的地緣政治與軍事衝突之一。本分析將從政治結構學、地緣戰略學、軍事組織制度、以及戰術心理學的學術視角，全面解構這場戰役的前因、過程與深遠影響。
一、 戰役前因：地緣政治結構與內在矛盾
淝水之戰的爆發，並非單純取決於前秦皇帝苻堅的個人意志，而是北方急速統一帶來的結構性危機與東晉防禦機制演變共同作用的結果。
1. 前秦：多民族帝國的「夾生」統一與統治核心脆弱性
- 族群結構的「蛇吞象」現象： 前秦依靠氐族（僅...
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Authors
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Co-founder of Forbole. Bitcoiner. Kaspian.
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