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Bitcoin and global macro research firm.

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Latest Issues

Bitcoin Is Up 20% in 30 Days, and Three Datapoints Say Consolidation Before the Next Leg

The 2023 template says months of rallies and consolidations towards $90,000

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4 days ago
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The 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord & Pax Silica

Dear Readers,

The G20 is meeting this week in North Carolina, and right away we get a picture that tells not 1,000 words, but perhaps 40 trillion of them.

What did Secretary Bessent and Fed Chair Warsh discuss, exactly, on that airplane?...

6 days ago
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TBL Liquidity Is Outperforming Markets

You can get access to our charts and data inside our TBL Pulse Dashboard:

Get Access to TBL Pulse


Dear Readers,

Over the past couple of weeks, we have received a few questions and comments on the performance of our TBL Liquidity I...

9 days ago
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Another Bitcoin Bear Market Rally Or The Real Deal? A Discussion with Checkonchain

An Exclusive Update with Checkonchain. Full video now available directly on Substack as well as the traditional private YouTube link.

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11 days ago
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Bitcoin's Trend Just Flipped for the First Time Since September 2025

Eleven months in the red, and the framework just flipped to uptrend

What a performance from bitcoin since last week’s letter! We hadn’t planned an update for this week, since I’m on the road, but our framework triggered and I couldn’t let...

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Authors

The writers behind this newsletter.

  • Nik Bhatia

    Founder of The Bitcoin Layer, Author of Layered Money and Bitcoin Age, teaching at USC Marshall School of Business

  • James Check (Checkmatey)

    Ex-civil engineer, turned Bitcoin analyst after falling down the onchain analysis rabbit hole. I am the co-founder of checkonchain, co-author of Cointime Economics, and previously built and led the analyst team at glassnode.

  • Augustine Carrasco

    The Bitcoin Layer - Research & Market Analyst

  • Johan Bergman

    Bitcoin | Financial Markets | Corporate Finance

  • Less Noise More Signal

    I’m Pascal Hügli. With a background in political philosophy, a career in investment management, and a deep expertise in Bitcoin and digital assets, I made it my mission to cut through the noise by amplifying the signal.

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