The Categorical Imperative
Clay GraubardPredictions, geopolitics, and technology (mostly).
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Infrequently |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 4 | Founded | 5 years ago | Last Issue | a year ago |
| Active | |||||
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thecategoricalimperative.substack.c...Latest Issues
Ukraine is Falling. The end is Near.
Source: Metaculus
Since I started writing this scattered collection of thoughts and rapid predictions a day ago, the United States and Ukraine announced they are open to an immediate and complete ceasefire. This makes sense. Whether this h...
You Can't Ignore the Consequences of Great Power Conflict.
1 Twelve days ago, Russia began its invasion of Ukraine. In the days since, Andrew and I have tracked relevant forecasts, collected signals, and debated the high-order questions defining the latest chapter in the Russo-Ukrainian War. In tod...
We are at war. It is time to declare one.
1 Coronavirus — echoing the immortal words of Joe Biden — is a big fucking deal. The most recent developments would tell you as much.
Yesterday the British government announced a stimulus package worth 420 billion pounds — equivalent to 15...
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Forecasting, geopolitics, and other scattered things.
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