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ChinArb

Capturing Structural Alpha via de-ideologized game theory and physical data. Decoding the evolution of global systems. 20+ years embedded in China's policy and industrial frontlines.

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Issues70Founded5 months agoLast Issue6 days ago
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Latest Issues

Chokepoint Visa: The New Order of the Oceans

Background

When I wrote The Choking of the World’s Oceans in January, the Iron Throne was wobbling but America still sat on it—Mahan’s doctrine, four moves on the board, five maritime arteries gripped, an empire still too strong to cha...

6 days ago
33
23

The AI Trap: Washington Locked Itself Out—China Walked In

AI market share:

US AI in China, by token volume: 0%.

Chinese AI in the US, by token volume: ~50%.

That’s OpenRouter, April 2026. OpenRouter is the world’s largest independent AI API aggregation platform — 5 million developers,...

22 days ago
34
8

Why John Steinbach’s $281 Electric Bill Is Fueling China’s AI

Three things happened in three places at the same moment.

San Francisco, 3 PM. An AI engineer is writing model_routes.json. The most expensive client conversations — emotional support, medical explanation, legal analysis — go to Claude Opu...

24 days ago
26
4

Islamabad — The First Draft of a New World

If you have been following the Islamabad news over the past few days, you have seen something like this:

Iran announces it is walking out of the talks, then returns to the table. Israel bombs Beirut eight hours into the ceasefire. Trump po...

a month ago
81
101

Hostile Symbiosis — A World Where Win and Lose No Longer Apply

Over the past few days we have witnessed an absurdity without precedent — both sides of the war have declared total victory. Trump on Truth Social: “Total and Complete Victory.” Ghalibaf on Iranian state TV: “Iran’s forty-two days of resist...

a month ago
74
48

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  • ChinArb

    Capturing Structural Alpha via de-ideologized game theory and physical data. Decoding the evolution of global systems. 20+ years embedded in China's policy and industrial frontlines.

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