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The Pareto Trading Pit

Portfolio Manager and Nerd for Rule-based Trading Strategies.

Platform
Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesWeekly
Issues26Founded6 months agoLast Issue6 days ago
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Latest Issues

Is Warsh Telling Us He Wants a Steeper Curve?

Key Takeaways:

  • Warsh’s real lever is the balance sheet, not interest rates: the reluctance to hike reflects a different policy mechanism, not a loss of control.

  • Long yields do the Fed’s work either way: mortgage rates cool real es...

6 days ago
4

Monthly Close #5: A Beautiful Deleveraging, and Yields at a 2007 Highs

Good Morning,

This week will be a slightly different posting cadence than usual. As I have been going through my monthly routines, I found myself writing a lot more than usual in the note section on QQQ and Interest rates. Both are, I thin...

6 days ago
5

QQQ: Correction Canceled?

In last week’s edition, we lined up some clear conditions for QQQ to end its correction, as well as a scenario for further downside, if the week closes below the yellow 21 EMA. Throughout the week, we had conclusive price action (in the tru...

7 days ago
2

Your Dashboard Just Got a Third Engine

Key Summary:

  • A third strategy, Selling Climax Mean Reversion, is now live on the Dashboard alongside 12-1 Sector Momentum and Combined Momentum.

  • Free readers get the mechanism. Paid subscribers get the live status, position sizing...

11 days ago
3

Weekly Open #5: QQQ Cracks, the ECB Blinks, and BTC Waits

Key Summary:

  • QQQ confirmed downtrend: daily close above 710 USD needed to change the picture; weekly MACD cross adds downside risk.

  • SPY holding firm: consolidation range 736–759 USD intact, rotation thesis confirmed beneath the su...

15 days ago
4

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  • The Pareto Trading Pit

    Fixed Income PM. This newsletter is everything I can't do at work. Completely unconstrained, no Mandates, no Committees. Building systematic strategies. Deploying real capital. If a backtest can't survive slippage and commissions, I say so.

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