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Dysgenics, forecasting, machine learning, sociology, physiognomy, IQ, simulations

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Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesMonthly
Issues11Foundeda year agoLast Issue4 months ago
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Latest Issues

Unraveling Cold Winters Theory with Ancient Genomes

This post (written by me) is the culmination of a collaboration with Davide Piffer, check out his substack.

TL;DR

  • We tested cold winters theory using polygenic scores from ancient genomes matched to historical winter temperatures da...
4 months ago
23
5

Dawn of the Silicon Gods: The Complete Quantified Case

TL;DR

  • AI capabilities are accelerating. Aggregate benchmark performance shows the rate of progress roughly doubling since 2024.

  • The duration of the longest task AI can autonomously complete (METR) doubles every 4 months.

  • On...

5 months ago
39
10

White by Default: Systematic Bias in U.S. Criminal Racial Assignment

TL;DR

  • We trained a multinomial logistic regression model (k = 18, n = 1.5 million) using racial probability classes extracted from DeepFace’s racial classifier and first and last name racial summary statistics from the US census and...
6 months ago
100
12

Would Eugenics Work? Simulating Positive Eugenics Targeting IQ

!!!Warning. Substack does not support inline LATEX equations or code blocks! If this is as annoying to you as it is to me, you can visit my website’s mirror post, which does support it.!!!

TL;DR

  • A positive eugenics policy ($20,0...
10 months ago
68
5

I Web Scraped 2 Million Substack Articles. This is What I Learnt.

Note, this post was 90% written by Gemini 2.5 Pro as an experiment. All data was sourced by me, as were the plots, model designs.

TL;DR

  • Frequency > Length: Posting more often (even daily) seems better than writing fewer, longe...
a year ago
22
2

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  • Uncorrelated

    IQ, genetics, dysgenics, forecasts, machine learning, sociology, physiognomy

  • Davide Piffer

    I have worked in population genetics for the last ten years, besides chronobiology, evolutionary psychology, creativity, and behavioural genetics. My work has been published in peer-reviewed journals

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