Value Investing
Frameworks for thinking like a value investor, moats, valuation, capital allocation, and the mistakes along the way. No signals, no hype.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 36 | Founded | 8 months ago | Last Issue | 4 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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valueoverhype.substack.comLatest Issues
The Acquisition Your Portfolio Company Just Announced Is Probably Going to Destroy Value
The impairment charge is the accounting catching up to the economics. The economics were visible years earlier, if you knew where to look.
The pattern is one of the most reliably destructive in corporate finance, and it follows the same se...
What to Do When a Stock You Own Drops 20%: A 3-Question Framework
A 20% drop in a stock you own is one of the most reliable tests of an investment process.
Not because 20% is a particularly meaningful number, it is not. The business has not changed because the stock price moved. The underlying competitiv...
Why 30% Margin of Safety Is Sometimes Too Little - and 10% Is Sometimes Enough
A 30% discount isn't always enough, and sometimes 10% is more than sufficient. A four-dimension calibration framework covering earnings predictability, balance sheet resilience, competitive durability, and valuation model sensitivity, with...
The Mistake Every Value Investor Makes With Dividend Stocks (Including Me)
There is a specific kind of value investor mistake that looks nothing like a mistake at the time.
The stock has a recognizable name. The business has been operating for decades. The dividend has been paid without interruption for years, so...
Why You Keep Buying Compounders Too Late (And How to Find Them Earlier)
The best entry points into compounding businesses come before the compounding is visible. Six specific financial and competitive fingerprints, including gross margin sequencing, incremental ROIC, and competitive widening in the weakest segm...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Helping long-term investors build wealth through value investing frameworks, valuation insights, and timeless mental models. Writing about great businesses, undervalued opportunities, intrinsic value, and margin of safety.
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