50¢ Dollars
Adhi Rajaprabhakaran, Chris DierkesA newsletter about prediction markets by a pro prediction market trader.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 22 | Subscribers | Read | fiftycentdollars.substack.com |
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Latest Issues
Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.
I was wrong
For months, I’ve been telling anyone who would listen that sportsbooks themselves would become the biggest customers of prediction markets. I think I was wrong.
I started a podcast
For a long time, my favorite podcast has been Odd Lots by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal. What makes it so good is simple: they bring on people who really know their stuff, and they’re not afraid to get into the weeds. It’s curious, techn...
Betfair had the wrong passport
Here’s a question that stumps most prediction market enthusiasts: Why didn’t Betfair Exchange—with its superior pricing, lower fees, and fairer model—dominate the UK sports betting market?
The fish are the product
In any exchange, the fundamental dynamic is simple: takers pay fees to trade immediately, while makers earn positive-EV and rebates for posting standing orders. But Wall Street’s traditional metrics miss what’s actually driving value in pre...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Prediction market trader for 5 years, 3 of them for Kalshi. Washed and writing commentary now. Open to consulting: https://eightyhi.notion.site/fiftycentdollarsconsulting
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