A newsletter about prediction markets by a pro prediction market trader.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 32 | Founded | 10 months ago | Last Issue | 2 months ago |
| Active | |||||
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Steal from the rich, give to the poor
On the night of February 12, on an exchange that is usually pretty quiet with sports, three NBA games suddenly lit up the tape. Dallas at the Lakers, Milwaukee at OKC, Portland at Utah. Between the triple-header, they generated over 13 mill...
Minimum Viable Liquidity
Prediction markets are really more of a “glass half full” type of asset class.
I joined Kalshi Trading, the exchange’s in-house market-making operation, in the summer of 2022. CPI was the hottest story in the world. Inflation had just hit...
Regulatory greenfield
The United States had all of fifteen active futures exchanges in 2019. That was the low point of a decades-long consolidation that had compressed the industry into a duopoly of CME Group and ICE, with a handful of niche survivors on the mar...
Prediction markets don’t bend reality
For five years now, I’ve traversed the same conversation tree hundreds of times. Someone asks: “so, what do you do?” I tell them, “I bet on politics for a living.” The distribution of responses to this are polarized and bimodal.
Half the p...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Prediction market trader for 5 years, 3 of them for Kalshi. Washed and writing commentary now.
"13 year old prediction markets guru" - Business Insider
I am a prediction markets expert and Kalshi’s former Head of Operations. Follow me on X where I am active!
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