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Nonconsensus

Bob Elliott, Prometheus Research
Hundreds of paid subscribers

A daily look into the thinking of veteran macro investor Bob Elliott as he navigates some of the most challenging market dynamics he's seen over his career.

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Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesDaily
Issues459Founded2 years agoLast Issue3 days ago
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Latest Issues

One Big Bet

US stocks have held up in the face of surging bond yields, corporate spreads, and higher oil prices. The AI mania is the only thing left supporting the market.

Macro folks generally don’t spend too much time focused on individual company d...

3 days ago
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2
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Cooling LLM Spend

Timely data suggests paid models ARR growth slowing considerably in recent months. How will the needed $3tln/yr in revenue come by 2030 when linear growth (or worse) is happening at 120bln/yr?

For years AI-related spend had a real economy...

4 days ago
11
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AI Capex Boom Keeps On Chugging

Timely macro data suggest the surge in AI-related capex continues in line with previous quarters, with the main question whether there is enough real economy demand to meet the buildout.

The AI-related compute buildout remains all systems...

5 days ago
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Eurozone Debt Crisis Flashbacks

While French spreads have widened in recent weeks, the underlying dynamics today show very few signs of the type of capital flight that drove the acute crisis years ago.

The recent declines in French bonds have given many folks flashbacks...

6 days ago
12
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Week Ahead 2026.10.04

After a couple weeks fully stuffed with data and policy efforts, the coming week looks pretty light, so it’ll be a chance to catch up on a couple of the longer-term themes.

Timely measures suggest that AI-related compute investment activit...

7 days ago
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Authors

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  • Bob Elliott

    CIO at Unlimited Funds | Fmr IC at Bridgewater | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice

  • Prometheus Research
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