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Nonconsensus

Bob Elliott
Hundreds of paid subscribers

A daily look into the thinking of veteran macro investor Bob Elliott as he navigates some of the most challenging market dynamics he's seen over his career.

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Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesDaily
Issues362Foundeda year agoLast Issue4 days ago
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Latest Issues

Underpricing Aussie Resilience

Australia continues to experience the most persistent inflation pressures across developed economies despite past hikes and yet short rate markets have given up hope for further rises ahead.

For much of the last year Australia has been run...

4 days ago
9
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New Thematic Position: Fade Rate Hike Pricing

As I wrote about earlier today (and yesterday), macro conditions are lining up for a significant disinflationary impulse right at a time when expectations for hikes have increased significantly.

As I wrote about earlier today (and yesterda...

4 days ago
12
3
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The Coming Wave of Disinflation

The biggest inflation concerns for the economy are fading fast while short-rates continue to keep significant hikes priced in, suggesting the STIR markets are disconnected from macro reality… again.

Run it hot has been the hallmark narrati...

5 days ago
17
12
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Central Banks Rear View Mirror Driving

While policymakers talk tough on inflation even after the recent oil declines, the moves shift the policy calculus meaningfully away from further hikes driving lower front-end yields ahead.

Last week brought a slew of global central bank p...

6 days ago
10
1
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Not Many Bright Spots Beyond the AI Boom

Recent hard data from China and the US suggests subdued real activity outside of the AI / Semis boom, which suggests it’s not strong enough to energize the core of either economy at this point.

The short week last week was chock full of da...

7 days ago
13
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  • Bob Elliott

    CIO at Unlimited Funds | Fmr IC at Bridgewater | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice

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