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Nonconsensus

Bob Elliott
Hundreds of paid subscribers

A daily look into the thinking of veteran macro investor Bob Elliott as he navigates some of the most challenging market dynamics he's seen over his career.

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Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesDaily
Issues380Foundeda year agoLast Issue6 days ago
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Latest Issues

The Real Problem with US HH Demand

Households stretched in 1H26 just to maintain real spending as prices surged. Any (modest) relief may come from falling gas prices is more likely to be socked away in 2H26 than spent on a new bender.

***Hey folks, Substack seems to be havi...

6 days ago
8
3
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If The Official Numbers Are This Soft…

China’s economy remains in a deleveraging malaise that if anything is worsening. Were it not for some life from chips exports, it's likely the economy as a whole would be contracting right now.

For years the primary Chinese macroeconomic s...

7 days ago
12
3
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Unraveling This Mania

The equity mania was already fragile as sky high expectations, speculative investor exhaustion, and tightening financial conditions drove fading price action. War is likely to put it over the edge.

Yesterday wrapped up with news of the Pre...

8 days ago
15
5
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Closing Thematic Trade: Fade Rate Hike Pricing

Opened the trade based on the MoU signaling intention to have Hormuz open and lower inflation pressures ahead looking mispriced in the rates markets.

Opened the trade based on the MoU signaling intention to have Hormuz open and lower infla...

9 days ago
11
4
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The Global Downside Inflation Surprise

Inflation globally has remained remarkably subdued despite the recent surge in oil prices. Peak price increases are behind us pretty much everywhere even as US markets price peak hawkishness.

One of the biggest macro questions around the I...

9 days ago
13
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  • Bob Elliott

    CIO at Unlimited Funds | Fmr IC at Bridgewater | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice

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