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Nonconsensus

Bob Elliott
Hundreds of paid subscribers

A daily look into the thinking of veteran macro investor Bob Elliott as he navigates some of the most challenging market dynamics he's seen over his career.

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Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesDaily
Issues331Foundeda year agoLast Issue4 days ago
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Latest Issues

The AI Investment Impact Myth

Many folks hawk the narrative that AI investment is driving the US economy today. Once imports & the pre-AI run rate of software investment are accounted for, the macro impact is minimal.

For those of us regularly reading macro and financi...

4 days ago
13
7
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Manias In Plain Sight

The AI frenzy has evolved from a sector trade into a full-blown macro mania, driving extreme positioning, speculative flows, and global short & medium term earnings expectations to historic highs.

In the last few years since covid it seems...

5 days ago
21
9
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The Bond Market’s Oil Problem

Oil prices are pushing global bond yields to cycle highs, tightening financial conditions across developed markets. Global equities continue to look right past these direct economic drags everywhere.

Oil shocks are one of the insidious mac...

6 days ago
9
2
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I don't like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!

The inventory squeeze is coming fast. If Hormuz isn’t opened soon, plunging levels will force consumption rationing through higher prices and the demand destruction that comes with it.

For the last few months the economic impact from the o...

7 days ago
21
2
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The Week Ahead 2026.05.10

Markets remain caught between AI-fueled optimism and the economic drag from a major oil shock. The coming week’s data may help reveal just a little bit which narrative is winning.

It feels like the global financial markets are really torn...

8 days ago
13
2
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  • Bob Elliott

    CIO at Unlimited Funds | Fmr IC at Bridgewater | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice

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