Real Estate Data and Analysis
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calculatedrisk.substack.comLatest Issues
Architecture Billings "Weaken further" in May
Architecture Billings Index in Contraction for 43 of Last 44 Months
This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential.
From the AIA: ABI May 2026: Archit...
New Home Sales Decrease to 580,000 Annual Rate in May
Median New Home Price is Down 8% from the Peak due to Change in Mix
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 580 thousand. The previous three months were revised down slightly, com...
Inventory will Tell the Tale
Way back in November 2021, I wrote Inventory will Tell the Tale and recounted how changes in housing inventory had helped me forecast the housing market at several key points. Inventory growth has slowed recently, and this could be importan...
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May
First, the NAR is now reporting existing home sales much earlier in the month than in previous years. According to the 2026 release schedule, the NAR will report sales as early as the 9th of the following month. For example, for May 2025 sa...
Housing Starts: Average Length of Time from Start to Completion Still Very Elevated for Multi-family in 2025
Length of Time from Start to Completion
Census released the annual data on the length of time from start to completion, and this showed residual construction delays impacting completions in 2025.
In 2020 and 2021, builders responded t...
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Authors
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Bill McBride, author of CalculatedRisk blog.
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