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Money or Debt Newsletter

Stephen Perrenod

Modeling Bitcoin Value with the Power Law and log periodicity

Platform
Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesTwice weekly
Issues106Founded6 years agoLast Issue8 days ago
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Latest Issues

Bitcoin vs. Gold and the Geometry of Scale Invariance

Introduction, motivation

Seven years ago, Giovanni Santostasi noticed the possibility of log periodic behavior of Bitcoin superimposed on its overall power law of price vs. age. The latter is continuous scale invariance, the former discret...

8 days ago
5
2

MSTR as a Rocket

Introduction

Traditional finance frameworks treat MSTR primarily as either a leveraged Bitcoin proxy or a premium-to-NAV vehicle. But the data suggest something more unusual: the dominant driver of MSTR’s amplification has not been persist...

11 days ago
9
2

Strategy Capital Structure under Power Law and Positive Skew

Executive summary

Michael Saylor’s strategy for the Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) now rests heavily on issuance of the STRC permanent preferred security as a high yield instrument with an adjustable yield, presently 11.5%. Given...

15 days ago
11
2

Comparing 3.5-Year Cyclicality with Three-Mode Log-Periodicity

Price Projections with DSI are Higher than with Linear Cycle

This is not investment advice.

25 days ago
12
1
Paid

Disproving 4-Year Cycle Dominance in Minutes

Bitcoin commentators often speak as if the market is governed by a four-year cycle. The halving happens every four years, therefore the price cycle must be four years. It is simple, intuitive, and popular.

But it is not what the data say....

a month ago
26

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Authors

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  • Stephen Perrenod

    Technology analyst/advisor, astrophysics PhD, Associate Director of Scientific Bitcoin Institute ⚡️#hodl creator of semiannual CryptoSuper mining list, elucidator of Block Calendar system

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