Modeling Bitcoin Value with the Power Law and log periodicity
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 124 | Founded | 6 years ago | Last Issue | 2 days ago |
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stephenperrenod.substack.comLatest Issues
Bitcoin Structural and Stochastic Convexity vs. the S&P 500's
Separating structural curvature from residual volatility
Why Jensen Convexity Matters
Decomposing Bitcoin’s Convexity
Executive Summary
Bitcoin has a significantly positive convexity from its long-run structural trajectory, enhanced by its volatility. Its log-periodicity changes the timing and intensity but not the underlying structure. Once the structura...
Bitcoin’s Metcalfe Ratchet
Executive Summary
Bitcoin’s price and network adoption appear to interact through an asymmetric feedback process. Strong price increases attract new participants and produce persistent growth in non-zero-balance addresses, while comparable...
Does Bitcoin Really Follow Metcalfe's Law? Five New Tests
Executive Summary
Santostasi and Perrenod [1,2] have argued that Bitcoin exhibits a long-run power-law structure linking price, network adoption, and network value through approximately scale-invariant relationships. A recent Amphora Analy...
Two-Year Scenario for Bitcoin: Two Log-Periodic Modes
Flat 12-Month Outlook, Next LP Peak around 2030
Executive Summary
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Technology analyst/advisor, astrophysics PhD, Associate Director of Scientific Bitcoin Institute ⚡️#hodl creator of semiannual CryptoSuper mining list, elucidator of Block Calendar system
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