Modeling Bitcoin Value with the Power Law and log periodicity
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Beyond the Power Law V: A Map of Bitcoin’s Hidden Geometry
Introduction
Over four articles this summer I have been asking a question that goes beyond whether Bitcoin follows a power law:
What kind of dynamical system produces the deviations around that power law?
The long-run relationship itself...
Bitcoin’s Empirical Kelly Criterion
A rolling 12-month estimate puts full Kelly above 100%
Introduction
Eight AI Chosen Models: The Power Law Wins Tournament
Concerned that AI might be cheating to win math prizes, I asked ChatGPT if it had discovered Bitcoin’s power law. It said no, and that “The historical attribution remains with Giovanni Santostasi, whose work predates by years”. It also refe...
Bitcoin Structural and Stochastic Convexity vs. the S&P 500's
Separating structural curvature from residual volatility
Why Jensen Convexity Matters
Decomposing Bitcoin’s Convexity
Executive Summary
Bitcoin has a significantly positive convexity from its long-run structural trajectory, enhanced by its volatility. Its log-periodicity changes the timing and intensity but not the underlying structure. Once the structura...
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Authors
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Technology analyst/advisor, astrophysics PhD, Associate Director of Scientific Bitcoin Institute ⚡️#hodl creator of semiannual CryptoSuper mining list, elucidator of Block Calendar system
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