Money or Debt Newsletter
Stephen PerrenodModeling Bitcoin Value with the Power Law and log periodicity
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 119 | Founded | 6 years ago | Last Issue | 9 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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Beyond the Power Law III: The Dynamics of Bitcoin’s Hidden Attractor
Executive Summary
In the first article of this series I showed that Bitcoin’s departures from its long-term power-law growth are not purely stochastic. Delay-coordinate reconstruction in logarithmic time revealed a low-dimensional determin...
Beyond the Power Law II: Bitcoin’s Hidden Hyperspace
Revealing Stretch-and-Fold Dynamics in Bitcoin’s Reconstructed Attractor
Executive Summary
Beyond the Power Law I: Reconstructing Bitcoin’s Hidden Dynamics
Executive Summary
For more than a decade, Bitcoin’s price has been known to follow an extraordinary long-term power law with an exponent near 5.7 and an R^2 now exceeding 0.96. The long-term power law describes Bitcoin’s secular growth, wh...
How to Replace the Bitcoin “Floor” with Probability
Two-sided residuals with reciprocal decay
Bitcoin investors often ask whether price has hit the “floor”. There is no floor. A better question is: What percentile of Bitcoin’s historical age-adjusted valuation distribution does today’s pric...
Forecasting Bitcoin Beyond the Power Law Using Log Periodicity and Financial Stress
A parsimonious model with only two log-periodic modes and financial conditions leading by 9 weeks explains almost 90% of Bitcoin’s recent power-law residuals
Executive Summary
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Technology analyst/advisor, astrophysics PhD, Associate Director of Scientific Bitcoin Institute ⚡️#hodl creator of semiannual CryptoSuper mining list, elucidator of Block Calendar system
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