Money or Debt Newsletter
Stephen PerrenodModeling Bitcoin Value with the Power Law and log periodicity
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 116 | Founded | 6 years ago | Last Issue | 5 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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stephenperrenod.substack.comLatest Issues
How to Replace the Bitcoin “Floor” with Probability
Two-sided residuals with reciprocal decay
Bitcoin investors often ask whether price has hit the “floor”. There is no floor. A better question is: What percentile of Bitcoin’s historical age-adjusted valuation distribution does today’s pric...
Forecasting Bitcoin Beyond the Power Law Using Log Periodicity and Financial Stress
A parsimonious model with only two log-periodic modes and financial conditions leading by 9 weeks explains almost 90% of Bitcoin’s recent power-law residuals
Executive Summary
Log-Log-Log Candlesticks: Scale-Invariant Bitcoin Charts
Executive Summary
Bitcoin has been shown in numerous studies to approximately follow a power-law relationship between price and network age. In this article we employ a third logarithmic transformation by constructing candlesticks that occ...
Realized Capital Log-Periodicity
Executive Summary
Bitcoin’s power-law growth has been extensively studied, but less attention has been paid to the structure of the residuals around that trend. Previous work identified a log-periodic component in Bitcoin price, suggesting...
The Trust Capital Power Law
Bitcoin’s power laws as the expression of trust capital accumulation
Executive Summary
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Technology analyst/advisor, astrophysics PhD, Associate Director of Scientific Bitcoin Institute ⚡️#hodl creator of semiannual CryptoSuper mining list, elucidator of Block Calendar system
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