Modeling Bitcoin Value with the Power Law and log periodicity
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stephenperrenod.substack.comLatest Issues
This Mini-Bubble is Slowing
Some bad news and some good news
The bad news is: it doesn’t look, based on an LPPL model, as if we break $100,000 this month and perhaps not until year-end or shortly after.
Bitcoin and Monetary Liquidity Weak Coupling
The Liquidity Question
Does liquidity lead Bitcoin? In the monthly tests reported here, OECD M3 and US M2 growth have very little explanatory power for subsequent Bitcoin returns over the full history. Reversing the lead produces somew...
Bitcoin’s Electricity Consumption Growing More Slowly than its Value
Electricity and GDP for Nations
Figure 1 shows the electricity consumption per capita for various countries plotted in log-log terms against the GDP per capital. One can roughly approximate the rising electricity consumption with two power...
Bitcoin LPPL fit as of 10 October
Critical date moves out to early November, target price near $100K
The LPPL short term bubble fits have 7 parameters and thus can be rather fickle. The more waves that complete the more likely the fit is to be accurate and we have now comp...
Bitcoin’s Autocorrelation Function
Introduction
In our very recent paper “A Clauset-in-Spirit Goodness-of-Fit Test for a Power Law in Time”, Zenodo.org: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23105856 Giovanni Santostasi and I estimated, using a daily price series, that Bitcoin’s A...
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Authors
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Technology analyst/advisor, astrophysics PhD, Associate Director of Scientific Bitcoin Institute ⚡️#hodl creator of semiannual CryptoSuper mining list, elucidator of Block Calendar system
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