The Oracle by Polymarket
Polymarket, Neil Paine, Terry Lee, Jacob Savage, Dhruv Gupta, Stand.Trade, Jonathan Masters, Will WardRead this to become a better forecaster
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 166 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 5 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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news.polymarket.comLatest Issues
PILL MILL
At this time last year, Polymarket traders thought FDA approval of a new kidney drug was almost a sure thing. YES shares traded as high as 89% before crashing to zero in days.
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The strangest part? The drug was completely fine...
GRAY ZONE
Polymarket traders seem to be pricing a startling scenario: that the Russia-Ukraine war—Europe’s deadliest since World War II—could spiral into an even wider conflagration before year’s end.
Traders currently put the prospects for a “milit...
MAINE SQUEEZE
TheMaineWonk is a Democratic strategist based in northern Maine’s conservative second congressional district.
He’s watched Republican Susan Collins skate to victory over and over by bringing home the pork, but thinks this cycle is differen...
THE ARGENTINA MODEL
Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital, an event-driven hedge fund, and writes Sifting the World on Seeking Alpha and Substack.
In his first Oracle conversation, he named Paramount as the likely buyer of Warner Bros. Discovery...
THE MATH OF DEFEAT
Hedge fund manager by day, Substacker by night, Anusar Farooqui has a background in military history and holds a PhD in black hole geometry.
Just one week into the start of the Iran war, Farooqui published “Why the US is facing strategic d...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Sports data guy, writer, editor, podcaster, former FiveThirtyEight sports editor, proud Georgia Tech alum.
Extracting alpha from prediction markets and crypto! NFA always :)
Jacob Savage is a ticket scalper and very occasional writer who lives in Los Angeles.
ai @ penn, writer for @polymarket | building fun things
Find prediction market strategies on Stand. Copy trading, news trading, and more!
Clear explainers and in-depth analysis on international affairs, defense, and foreign policy. Ex–Council on Foreign Relations editor.
Editor, The Oracle by Polymarket
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