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The best of what's new at Manifold Markets

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Latest Issues

Forecasting Primary Day

The Golden State

When Above the Fold last covered the pretty-darn-important California primaries, Eric Swalwell had just dropped out and Tom Steyer was a heavy favorite to win the governor’s election, looking likely to advance to the...

8 days ago
17

An Orderly Succession

The week after May 7th was the closest Labour has come to collapsing in on itself since winning the 2024 general election. Reform swept the English councils. Wales polled Labour third. The Greens took London boroughs.

The markets had price...

14 days ago
18

Changelog 5/22: Bonuses, Blocks & Colors

Bonuses

Last week, @Genzy brought us a limited-time run of doubled unique trader bonuses! This is a great time to make new markets and recoup some of those costs. I went ahead and made a market I had been thinking about recently, and I’v...

18 days ago
12

Forecasting Mathematics

Yesterday, OpenAI announced that an internal general-purpose reasoning model had disproved the planar unit distance problem, a conjecture Paul Erdős posed in 1946 and reportedly mentioned in lectures for decades. The question asks: among n...

20 days ago
25

Forecasting Hantavirus

In a very dialectical spirit, I’d like to bring together two opposing take-spheres on the recent hantavirus outbreak using Manifold markets.

On one hand, most professional forecasters agree with mainstream health organizations that hantavi...

23 days ago
30

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    Prediction market enjoyer, working on Manifold

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