PSI Capital
Research for investors on how energy and commodity shocks affect gold, inflation and financial markets—and the evidence that would change our view.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 35 | Founded | 6 months ago | Last Issue | 7 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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psicapital.substack.comLatest Issues
Why a Fall in Crude Prices May Not Solve High Inflation
Things to know
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Our base case is that the price gap between diesel and crude will not return to 2025 levels in the next six months. Shipping and insurance costs remain far above 2025 levels, and supply remains constrained.
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Shipp...
Hormuz Shock: The Workaround Will Be the Next Chokepoint
Things to know
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Gulf crude is back through a different route. Exports outside Iran reached pre-war volume in September, but 40% bypassed Hormuz against 17% before the war.
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Several links in the new chain are near their limits. Th...
$10,000 Gold Is Our Base Case. $15,000 Is a Possibility.
Things to know
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A key part of the $10,000 mechanism already showed up in August. Gold rose 13.3% to $4,563 despite high real yields – by mid-September, 10-year TIPS were yielding roughly 2.6% above inflation.
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$10,000 gold doesn’...
Hormuz Shock: Exporting More Oil Is Not Always a Sovereign Gain
Things to know
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Canada reached the external-balance rung. Its current account swung from a C$8.3 billion deficit to a C$8.8 billion surplus in Q2, led by energy exports.
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Brazil and Guyana converted through different public chann...
Hormuz Shock: What Made a Country's External Buffer Durable?
Things to know
- India absorbed the shock, not unscathed. Gross reserves hit a record $729.3 billion in August. Separately, banks and borrowers raised $72.8 billion through a temporary RBI-backed scheme to draw in foreign currency – a...
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The writers behind this newsletter.
Research for investors on how energy and commodity shocks affect gold, inflation and financial markets, and the evidence that would change our view. Our work focuses on: What is the market pricing, and what is the real system actually able to deliver
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