Staring Down The Barrel
A twice-weekly look at what institutional research is really telling us.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 6 | Founded | 25 days ago | Last Issue | 4 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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staringdownthebarrel.substack.comLatest Issues
Big Tech wants more of your money and is giving back less
Yes… This is another edition about AI and bonds. We’d happily come back to oil, which we wrote about on October 16th, or to almost anything else in macro. Geopolitics we leave to people who do it for a living, so France’s politics can wait....
2026, the year Big Tech's free cash all but vanished
Meta spent more than it made in the third quarter. Operations brought in $32.79bn. Capital spending, including finance-lease principal, took $34.91bn. Free cash flow was negative $2.12bn, and the stock fell 7.0% on October 22nd.
Meta is la...
America shortens its debt so tech giants can lengthen theirs
In a week of hot CPI and PPI prints, the 10-year Treasury had its biggest weekly rally since August 2025. Core CPI ran 0.33% for September, and the odds of an October hike briefly topped 50%. The 10-year still fell 16.5bp to 5.07%.
Three d...
The Fed has no tool that reaches a shut refinery.
On October 2nd the G7 and its IEA partners agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of crude and diesel over four months. The diesel tranche was deliberately front-loaded into the first twenty days. European diesel cracks fell 14% that a...
You cannot own Micron and bet on rate cuts
Christopher Waller is signalling two more rate hikes. One of his three reasons is that the AI buildout is raising what Americans pay for technology goods.
The Fed spent two years treating data centres as a growth story. Its most hawkish go...
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A twice-weekly look at what institutional research is really telling us.
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