The Daily Report
Ariel CalistaHey, I’m Ari—born in Vegas, where the house always wins… unless you know how to play with it. I’ve built a betting strategy no one else has to double top handicappers’ ROIs. Sportsbooks aren’t guessing, and neither should you.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 79 | Subscribers | Read | arielcalista.substack.com |
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Latest Issues
Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.
Liquidity: Where Conviction Meets Market Resistance
Every bet, trade, or prediction is bounded by liquidity. It defines how many units of conviction you can deploy before your own action reshapes the market. Finance calls this market impact. In sports, it’s the difference between betting $50...
The Real Crisis in Horse Racing
What a week for CAW and horse racing. Geoff Zochodne from Covers wrote a nice article this week summarizing some leading horseracing individuals and their callout on the CAW problem. Mutt and his new boss Dave Portnoy are sounding similar a...
Efficiency: The Conversion of Information into Action
Last Substack, we explored volatility, the signature of disagreement, the noise. Volatility told us where the chaos begins. Efficiency tells us how fast it resolves.
Volatility: The Prediction Market’s Fingerprint of Truth
Last week, we mapped the architecture of market intelligence, the five pillars that explain how information becomes price. This week, we begin with the one every algorithm chases but few truly understand: Volatility.
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Authors
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Hey, I’m Ari—born in Vegas, where the house always wins… unless you know how to play with it. I’ve built a betting strategy no one else has to double top handicappers’ ROIs. Sportsbooks aren’t guessing, and neither should you.
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