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The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Market

Market Hitchhiker

Don't Panic: Hitchhike through financial frontiers with my unique blend of macro insights, top-down analysis, sentiment tracking, and positioning expertise.

Platform
Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesTwice weekly
Issues82Founded2 years agoLast Issue16 days ago
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Latest Issues

Positioning Reset

The Positioning Reset Has Begun

For the past month I have been warning that the momentum factor was stretched to the point of absurdity. On May 11, I wrote the following in the chat:

Momentum factor is sooo stretched and highly cor...

16 days ago
14
1

"Don’t short this Market"

I just randomly stumbled on a great post on r/stocks. Sharing it with you is also a good way for me to internalize it. My biases have changed over the last 10 years. I used to be a much more optimistic person and therefore what some might c...

2 months ago
17
1

Your Margin Is My Opportunity

I have been thinking a lot about the AI capex cycle lately. Who is writing the checks, who is cashing them, who is creating the demand, and most importantly, who gets to keep their fat margins when the music slows down.

Because the music w...

2 months ago
9

Crossing the Rubicon

I was initially going to write a long post recounting what happened, how we got there, and why the market did what it did. I’m going to spare you. Everyone who has a Twitter feed, or a pulse knows the rough contours of the Iran–US war alrea...

2 months ago
9

Macro Update #35

The Nothing Ever Happens crowd is, once again, looking very smart right now. The playbook around geopolitical shocks held up perfectly: a selloff followed by a V-shaped recovery. And again… The bear case always looked so appealing at the bo...

2 months ago
7
1

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    I’d far rather make money than be right any day.

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