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The Nowcast (and other thoughts on the economy)

Daniel Bachman

Interested in what's going on in the US economy? My Nowcast of the US economy will help you sort out what today's data actually means.

Platform
Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesWeekly
Issues118SubscribersRead dbachman.substack.com

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Latest Issues

Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.

Good news, but the forecast still edges down

Lots of economic news this week, that was surprisingly good.

8 days ago
0
0

A small change in the forecast

This week’s data was for export and import prices, both of which moved by more than the model forecast. The final result was a small rise in GDP as the impact on exports was greater than the impact on imports.

15 days ago
0
0

Higher prices lead to lower inventories

Forecasts are dropping a bit. The Nowcastmodel now predicts GDP growth of just 2.0% (down from 2.8% last week). The main change was in inventory valuations. While manufacturing inventories for January came in close to the forecast of no cha...

22 days ago
2
0

Trade pushes the forecast up

Last week saw several major releases. The net result was a hefty increase in the forecast, but also signs of trouble ahead.

a month ago
1
0

Authors

The writers behind this newsletter.

  • Daniel Bachman

    Economist and forecaster. My first job was in a country with an inflation rate of 130%.

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