The Nowcast (and other thoughts on the economy)
Daniel BachmanInterested in what's going on in the US economy? My Nowcast of the US economy will help you sort out what today's data actually means.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 124 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 9 days ago |
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dbachman.substack.comLatest Issues
Jobs data pushes the second quarter GDP forecast up a notch
At 3.9%, the Nowcast model’s forecast of Q2 GDP is slightly higher than last week. The employment release pushed up the forecast for the two sectors that rely on employment: government spending and intellectual property. The overall impact...
Who is really responsible for the decline of the American University?
Top US universities are having a problematic moment, to say the least. From students cheating to complaints about workplace preparation to grade inflation, everybody seems to agree that the ivory tower’s foundations are rotten. Blame falls...
New data points to another hot quarter
It’s time to put aside the narrative of slowing growth yet again. Two releases in the past week boosted the Q2 forecast from 1.9% to 3.8%. That’s despite the downward revision to GDP. If the economy is really slowing, it’s not showing up in...
How I was wrong in Q1
The Nowcast returns! I just spent a lovely month in Europe, which has its own economic challenges. (But maybe not as bad as some people think: Paul Krugman’s very technical but insightful explanation of why productivity data may be misleadi...
Some price data for March leaves the forecast unchanged
This week’s forecast includes two price measures, which had small, but offsetting impacts on the forecast.
The producer price index increase was quite subdued, except for the impact of higher fuel prices. The result was a large increase i...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Economist and forecaster. My first job was in a country with an inflation rate of 130%.
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