The Nowcast (and other thoughts on the economy)
Daniel BachmanInterested in what's going on in the US economy? My Nowcast of the US economy will help you sort out what today's data actually means.
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Another hit to the forecast
The forecast moved down slightly this week. The hit to residential investment from the weak housing starts report contributed slightly. But the main problem wa: new export and import price data for July. Prices for both imports and exports...
Weak data takes the forecast down
Two big releases this week were both featured as problems for the economy. Actually, only one release is a problem, and that not such a big problem—yet. The economy does appear to be weakening, but with a forecast of 3.5%, current quarter G...
Current quarter forecast is taken down by trade data
This week’s forecast is down a bit from last week, even if, at 4.4%, it is still pretty strong. The main driver of the change is international trade. Exports came in lower than expected, and imports higher than expected, in the latest inter...
The Nowcast (and consensus) comes closer in Q2
On the Nowcast, we make a point of showing how bad we are at forecasting. Each quarter, I look at what made the model miss the initial estimate of GDP. But before I get to that, let’s look at the possibility of 5.2% growth in Q2. That’s wha...
Still growth of 2.2% heading towards the initial GDP release
No new data over the past week, so the forecast remains at 2.2%. The next GDP release on Thursday (July 30) will provide the first look at actual GDP. Much of the difference (as always) involves BEA estimates of inventories and internationa...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Economist and forecaster. My first job was in a country with an inflation rate of 130%.
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