The Nowcast (and other thoughts on the economy)
Daniel BachmanInterested in what's going on in the US economy? My Nowcast of the US economy will help you sort out what today's data actually means.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 112 | Subscribers | Read | dbachman.substack.com |
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Latest Issues
Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.
Economists meet, talk...and talk...and talk
The National Association for Business Economics runs an annual conference on economic policy in Washington DC. I attended this year’s conference (February 22-24) so you could sit in your cozy house and watch fun stuff on TV instead. And now...
How I was wrong: A really big miss this time
It’s that time of the quarter again: the time when I have to explain why I was wrong. And this quarter, I was definitely wrong. The Nowcast Model’s topline GDP was 5.3% last week, which was a very strong number. Too strong, since actual GDP...
Maybe worse than it seems
We had quite a bit of data this week, resulting in a small decline (5.4% from 5.6% last week) in the GDP forecast. And the Q4 forecast—of significant concern at this point—was revised up from 0.0% to 0.6% growth. But that may be more of an ...
No data, no change
The slow data week left the Nowcast forecast unchanged at 5.6%. It left other forecasts unchanged as well. The Atlanta Fed, at 4.2%, is in the same ballpark as the Nowcast, the New York Fed stands at a more moderate 2.7% (which is high for ...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Economist and forecaster. My first job was in a country with an inflation rate of 130%.
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