The Nowcast (and other thoughts on the economy)
Daniel BachmanInterested in what's going on in the US economy? My Nowcast of the US economy will help you sort out what today's data actually means.
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The Nowcast (and consensus) comes closer in Q2
On the Nowcast, we make a point of showing how bad we are at forecasting. Each quarter, I look at what made the model miss the initial estimate of GDP. But before I get to that, let’s look at the possibility of 5.2% growth in Q2. That’s wha...
Still growth of 2.2% heading towards the initial GDP release
No new data over the past week, so the forecast remains at 2.2%. The next GDP release on Thursday (July 30) will provide the first look at actual GDP. Much of the difference (as always) involves BEA estimates of inventories and internationa...
The forecast flips back to the 2% level
June is the last month of the quarter, and levels of activity in June should have a relatively small impact on the change from Q1 (the average level of January to March) to Q2 (the average level of April to June). But the impact of the CPI...
Not a big change, and little reason to expect it at this point
Some updated data on international trade pushed the Nowcast forecast up slightly. At 0.7% (up from 0.6%), it remains low, but only because of the trade figures. And it’s quite possible that June’s trade figures will reverse some of the dete...
Advance trade data pushes GDP down
The Census Bureau releases advance data on exports and imports toward the end of each month. That data is the first view of international trade for the previous month (e.g., the data released at the end of June is for May). And this month’s...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Economist and forecaster. My first job was in a country with an inflation rate of 130%.
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