The Nowcast (and other thoughts on the economy)
Daniel BachmanInterested in what's going on in the US economy? My Nowcast of the US economy will help you sort out what today's data actually means.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 41 | Subscribers | Read | dbachman.substack.com |
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Latest Issues
Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.
The forecast flips: an unusual import change fooled the model
The Nowcast has been predicting a decline in GDP growth since early November. The main culprit was the huge rise in imports in September, the last month of the previous quarter. Last week, Census published October trade data, and the import...
Q4 GDP looks even worse
The US economy is showing signs of slowing. A few indications:
Still negative growth
Last week was a light data week (for economic data…I’m not counting the nominees for the cabinet in the new administration). The only data series released that could affect the Nowcast was housing starts, which came in a little lower than e...
Still pessimistic for Q4
This week’s monthly data was reasonably positive:
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Economist and forecaster. My first job was in a country with an inflation rate of 130%.
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