The Nowcast (and other thoughts on the economy)
Daniel BachmanInterested in what's going on in the US economy? My Nowcast of the US economy will help you sort out what today's data actually means.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
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| Issues | 129 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 4 days ago |
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dbachman.substack.comLatest Issues
Ignoring science
For some time, parts of the US (and European) right have been willing to simply steamroller over evidence-based research. Vaccination is the big story here, of course. But economics is another field where the new conservative movement is wi...
Consumer spending revision takes the forecast down
The Nowcast forecast has whipsawed (so to speak) over the past few weeks, from 2.5% two weeks ago to 2.8% last week to 2.2% this week. The culprit is consumer spending. We got a surprisingly good retail sales release last week, that pushed...
A few words on Kevin Warsh, a man of few words
(Image courtesy of the National Gallery of Art)
Last week’s FOMC meeting and press conference saw a LOT of focus on Kevin Warsh and his approach to monetary policy communications. I think that his approach has a lot to be said for it, alth...
Stong retail sales more than offset a hit to export growth
The Nowcast model’s forecast for Q2 GDP rose to 2.8% (from 2.5% last week). The higher growth was the result of strong retail sales in May (headline up 0.9%). The big jump in retail sales may be a bit misleading. Not only is overall inflati...
Inventories and trade data moderate the forecast
Data this week on international trade, inventories, and consumer spending pushed down the forecast for Q2.
International Trade
Last week we got advance data on exports and imports. This week’s more complete data showed stronger exports,...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Economist and forecaster. My first job was in a country with an inflation rate of 130%.
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