The Nowcast (and other thoughts on the economy)
Daniel BachmanInterested in what's going on in the US economy? My Nowcast of the US economy will help you sort out what today's data actually means.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
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| Issues | 120 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | a month ago |
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Some price data for March leaves the forecast unchanged
This week’s forecast includes two price measures, which had small, but offsetting impacts on the forecast.
The producer price index increase was quite subdued, except for the impact of higher fuel prices. The result was a large increase i...
Is the consumer stalling out?
We haven’t yet got the measure of the impact of the Iran war on the economy. But it looks like consumer spending was stalling even before any bombs were dropped in the Middle East.
Real consumer expenditure, it turns out, has been weak for...
Good news, but the forecast still edges down
Lots of economic news this week, that was surprisingly good.
- Retail sales were up in February. The 0.6% headline and retail only number beat what I thought was an optimistic forecast of 0.6% for retail only. Without motor vehicles and...
A small change in the forecast
This week’s data was for export and import prices, both of which moved by more than the model forecast. The final result was a small rise in GDP as the impact on exports was greater than the impact on imports.
As we wait for Q1 GDP to be...
Higher prices lead to lower inventories
Forecasts are dropping a bit. The Nowcastmodel now predicts GDP growth of just 2.0% (down from 2.8% last week). The main change was in inventory valuations. While manufacturing inventories for January came in close to the forecast of no cha...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Economist and forecaster. My first job was in a country with an inflation rate of 130%.
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