The Nowcast (and other thoughts on the economy)
Daniel BachmanInterested in what's going on in the US economy? My Nowcast of the US economy will help you sort out what today's data actually means.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 140 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 6 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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dbachman.substack.comLatest Issues
Higher inflation cuts the forecast
The big news this week was the higher than expected Consumer Price Index. But the Producer Price Index was also relatively strong, and that had a significant impact on the GDP forecast—at least for the Nowcast. Other forecasts disagree, but...
Topline growth still weak, but more clarity
The data this week was capped off by a pretty strong jobs report. But the net result was still a slight (-0.1 percentage point) drop in the Q3 GDP forecast. To be clear, the jobs report itself does have a big impact on the Nowcast forecast....
Looks worse than it is
The headline is ugly: the forecast for GDP growth fell from 3.1% to 1.2% in one week. That’s the difference between a super quarter and a subpar quarter. Admittedly, with immigration enforcement shrinking the labor force, 1.2% isn’t all tha...
Another hit to the forecast
The forecast moved down slightly this week. The hit to residential investment from the weak housing starts report contributed slightly. But the main problem wa: new export and import price data for July. Prices for both imports and exports...
Weak data takes the forecast down
Two big releases this week were both featured as problems for the economy. Actually, only one release is a problem, and that not such a big problem—yet. The economy does appear to be weakening, but with a forecast of 3.5%, current quarter G...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Economist and forecaster. My first job was in a country with an inflation rate of 130%.
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