The Nowcast (and other thoughts on the economy)
Daniel BachmanInterested in what's going on in the US economy? My Nowcast of the US economy will help you sort out what today's data actually means.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
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| Issues | 143 | Founded | 3 years ago | Last Issue | 6 days ago |
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A slight uptick in the forecast
Quite a bit of data came out last week, but it resulted in only a modest movement upwards in the forecast, from 0.3% to 0.5%. Consumer spending was even stronger than indicated by retail sales, and, with two months of consumer spending data...
Investment is a little weaker
Data on durable goods shipments and manufacturing inventories was a bit disappointing this week (at least, relative to the forecast). The impact on GDP for Q3 was small. The Nowcast forecast is now at 0.3%, down from 0.5% last week.
The N...
Is the economy passing the speed limit?
The biggest news this week was a big number for retail sales. Even adjusted for relatively high inflation, consumer spending looks to be quite strong in Q3. The Nowcast forecast for real consumer spending jumped from 2.3% to 3.0%, and pushe...
Higher inflation cuts the forecast
The big news this week was the higher than expected Consumer Price Index. But the Producer Price Index was also relatively strong, and that had a significant impact on the GDP forecast—at least for the Nowcast. Other forecasts disagree, but...
Topline growth still weak, but more clarity
The data this week was capped off by a pretty strong jobs report. But the net result was still a slight (-0.1 percentage point) drop in the Q3 GDP forecast. To be clear, the jobs report itself does have a big impact on the Nowcast forecast....
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Economist and forecaster. My first job was in a country with an inflation rate of 130%.
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