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The Super Model

The Super Model, Harry Crane, Flip Pidot, Ryan

Polls stink. Forecasters stink. Markets are decent. This might be slightly better.

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Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesDaily
Issues30SubscribersRead thesupermodel.com

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Latest Issues

Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.

Interview with Harry Crane

Fresh off a windfall in the Hunter Biden pardon market, Harry talks with us about his unique election model that enabled him to out-forecast the pros in 2024 and the future of political polling.

17 days ago
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Trump Chaos Index

The Trump Chaos Index (TCI) is a real-time gauge of the severity of policy uncertainty associated with the second Trump administration.

23 days ago
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The Wages of Election Modeling: Harry Crane vs. Super Model

This is our 4th forecaster match-up. See the original post in the series for more context on what’s going on here.

a month ago
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The Wages of Election Modeling: Manifold vs. Metaculus

This is our 3rd forecaster match-up. See the original post in the series for more context on what’s going on here.

a month ago
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Authors

The writers behind this newsletter.

  • The Super Model

    Purveyors of the finest real-time prediction market intelligence.

  • Harry Crane

    probability, complexity, gambling, common sense. co-founder http://researchers.one http://analytics.bet statistics professor

  • Flip Pidot

    Politics x Markets

  • Ryan

    Avid tennis player, poker punter, and prediction markets bull

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