Polls stink. Forecasters stink. Markets are decent. This might be slightly better.
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With yesterday’s untimely demise of 538, we’re looking into what tools and features (or reasonable facsimiles thereof) we may be able to readily replicate and deliver to you here at the Super Model.
Last week, we ran a poll asking you which prediction market (among , Kalshi, and Betfair) wound up having the sharpest pricing leading up to and during S*per Bowl LIX.
We’re about to publish an analysis of the major trading platforms that let people trade on the outcome of that Eagles v.s Chiefs matchup.
Real-time aggregate data is drawn from Polymarket, Crypto.com, Betfair, and Kalshi.
Other publications recommended by the authors of this newsletter.
The writers behind this newsletter.
Purveyors of the finest real-time prediction market intelligence.
probability, complexity, gambling, common sense. co-founder http://researchers.one http://analytics.bet statistics professor
Politics x Markets
Avid tennis player, poker punter, and prediction markets bull
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