Polls stink. Forecasters stink. Markets are decent. This might be slightly better.
Platform | Substack | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily |
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Fresh off a windfall in the Hunter Biden pardon market, Harry talks with us about his unique election model that enabled him to out-forecast the pros in 2024 and the future of political polling.
The Trump Chaos Index (TCI) is a real-time gauge of the severity of policy uncertainty associated with the second Trump administration.
This is our 4th forecaster match-up. See the original post in the series for more context on what’s going on here.
This is our 3rd forecaster match-up. See the original post in the series for more context on what’s going on here.
Other publications recommended by the authors of this newsletter.
The writers behind this newsletter.
Purveyors of the finest real-time prediction market intelligence.
probability, complexity, gambling, common sense. co-founder http://researchers.one http://analytics.bet statistics professor
Politics x Markets
Avid tennis player, poker punter, and prediction markets bull
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