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What actually matters to the stock market, plus quantitative Economic research with a focus on leverage and labor. (Hint: ignore most financial news)

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Issues392Founded5 years agoLast Issue8 days ago
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Latest Issues

[DRAFT] Shorting ZipTrader’s Sponsored Stocks

All…

Here’s a draft of a strategy I’m developing for shorting that YouTuber’s stocks.

How to get the full report…

The full report more backtests and charts will be available to paid subscribers, and anyone who refers Weekly Catal...

8 days ago

WC-05/11: Expect New All-Time Highs

Reasons for Irrational Exuberance

The S&P’s RSI and McClellan Oscillator are pointing toward a better week. This is nice, but strange.

I’m weirded out by how exuberant the market is behaving. To extent, it makes sense, as several of the...

8 days ago

ZipTrader Sponsored Stocks: Updated Data, Same Pattern

In April I published an analysis of 46 sponsored stock events on ZipTrader’s channel between January 2025 and April 2026.1 The finding was that 83% of those stocks declined more than 10% within 20 trading days, with a mean 20-day return of...

16 days ago
1

WC-05/03: Break + Work + Research

Slow Market and Warsh

The S&P’s RSI and McClellan Oscillator are pointing toward a small cool off this week.

I don’t have time to be any kind of verbose, but there are a few things to keep in mind going into May:

  • Kevin Warsh was c...
17 days ago

WC-4/27 (late): Quick Thought On The Market

The Market is Suspiciously Resilient

I expected this week to be a much higher cool-off from our previous rally. Margin Debt (Debit Balances in all US customers' securities margin accounts) hasn’t dropped that low, given it’s nearly pair-...

20 days ago

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  • Justo Karell

    Decision Scientist and adjunct simulating things, closing knowledge gaps, and messing around.

  • Parth Halani
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