Weekly Catalysts
Justo Karell, Parth HalaniWhat actually matters to the stock market, plus quantitative Economic research with a focus on leverage and labor. (Hint: ignore most financial news)
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 403 | Founded | 5 years ago | Last Issue | 9 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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weeklycatalysts.substack.comLatest Issues
Buying QQQ’s Third Down Day Returned 1.290% Per Trade
A backtest of trading QQQ showed a 74.5% win rate over 47 trades. Here's a control test it failed, and what that failure means for position size.
Buying QQQ’s Third Down Day Returned 1.290% Per Trade
WC-07/27: 2mo Market Outlook: My Opinion on Correction Likelihood and Factors
Overview
Take this all with between 10-20 grains of pink Himalayan rock salt. I’m deviating from the usual programming to answer two questions:
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Will a correction happen in the next 2 months?
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What would cause it?
In short...
Market Outlook and Watchlist
Wake Me Up When September Ends
Margin debt and liquidity are spiking to near all time highs, unsustainably. I have a feeling it’s not long until they both slowly unwind, if that’s not happening already. If it is, my best guess is that it...
WC-07/20: Expect A Slight Decline + Warning on Margin Debt
First, Apologies
This past month has been rough. Work has been destructive (to put it nicely) to my mental and physical health, as well as to my relationship with this newsletter. Two days ago, I took 5 naps, and could barely walk. I was...
A Margin Debt Signal With a 93.8% Hit Rate
16 occurrences since 1997. 15 hits. Mean next-month S&P return: +4.27%.
Margin Debt's 3-Down-1-Up Pattern Signals S&P Increase 93.8% of the Time
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Simulation Engineering, Quantitative Research, closing knowledge gaps, and messing around.
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