財經 Moon Talk - 宏觀&美股投資日誌
I’m Moon \ud83c\udf19｜多年金融人，現用過去投行訓練的框架觀察宏觀與股票 ｜用顯淺易懂的文字分享大戶思維、投資與資產配置 ｜ 純屬個人分享小天地，不構成投資建議
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 130 | Founded | 7 months ago | Last Issue | 8 days ago |
| Active | Language |  Korean | |||
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【Moontalk週報】升息重新定價，美債與美股下一步怎麼走？
文章概要：
一、FOMC 會議要點：符合預期、內容偏鷹的會議
二、升息如何改變美股估值與盈利
三、升息如何重塑美國公債市場
前言
9 月FOMC把聯邦基金利率目標區間上調 25 個基點至 3.75%–4.00%。利率期貨早已消化這次升息，表面上沒有驚喜；標普 500 也沒有因為那 25 個基點立刻失去基本面支撐。然而，交易員盯著的從來不只是一個政策利率數字。點陣圖往哪裡移、主席怎麼描述金融情勢、長期中性利率如何重估，才會改變整條折現率曲線。 ...
【Moontalk 市場觀察】9月市況分析：AI 沒熄火，經濟也沒轉差，為什麼市場開始變得小心？
市場仍看好經濟與 AI CapEx，但估值、信用與 Positioning 對殖利率更加敏感
文章概要： 一、市況：市場仍然偏多，但利率正在考驗這輪牛市
【Moontalk週報】通膨再升溫 | Oracle AI資本開支暴增 | Apple押注折疊機 | AI Token價格戰
8月CPI重新點燃升息預期，Oracle以創紀錄AI資本開支換取雲端成長；Apple開啟折疊iPhone新產品週期，而Token價格持續下跌，AI產業進入算力擴張、價格下行、使用量增長的階段。
文章概要： 一、CPI通脹降速的表面，服務價格的黏性
【Moontalk深度個股分析】光通訊分析 | 中際旭創：AI資料中心光互連升級週期中的核心受益者？
AI 不只需要更多 GPU，也需要更快的資料傳輸。800G 逐步成為主流、1.6T 開始進入量產，SiPh、NPO、CPO 等新技術持續拓展光互連 TAM，中際旭創的量產能力與規模優勢可轉化為下一階段的盈利成長嗎?
前言： AI 伺服器的投資邏輯，過去經常圍繞 GPU、HBM、先進封裝與電力。當模型規模變大、訓練資料增加、推理工作負載開始長時間運作，資料中心的瓶頸逐漸轉向這些計算單元能否有效交換資料。
【Moontalk週報】非農強勁但就業分化 | 博通拉長AI估值時間軸 | Snowflake驗證企業級AI | 九月市場迎來再定價
文章概要：
一、非農數據很強，但就業市場的廣度正在變窄
二、博通把估值時間軸拉長，AI 訂單開始像基礎建設合約
三、Snowflake 用企業級付費證明 AI 增長不只是一個概念
四、油價、債券供給與九月季節性，讓大型科技股成為相對避風港
摘要
8 月非農新增 16.2 萬人、失業率維持 4.1%，表面上就業依然強勁，但新增職位主要集中在餐飲與地方教育，資訊科技、金融、專業服務與製造業反而合計減少 8,000 個職位。就業市場仍有韌性，只是更接近...
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I’m Moon \ud83c\udf19｜宏觀與市場分析，用從前在投行訓練的框架理解市場 ｜用顯淺易懂的文字分享大戶思維、投資與資產配置 ｜ 純屬個人分享小天地，不構成投資建議
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