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美股送分題

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用分析師的視角,寫市場真正如何被判斷,而不是如何被解讀,把sellside與buyside的決策流程,翻譯成投資人看的懂的語言

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Artwork for 美股送分題

Latest Issues

《宋分|分析師底層系統 #7》PE和PB怎麼比較誰便宜?美光、海力士、三大雲端,怎麼選?從五家公司估值出發,走一遍機構投資決策會議:比較預期報酬與下行風險,決定買誰、買多少,以及何時換股?

目標價只是起點。同樣一筆錢,我承擔多少風險,換到多少可能的報酬,又有多大把握能持有到判斷兌現?更高的報酬率,要交換的是更深的悲觀情境損失。你願不願意交換呢?

很多投資人在操作上都會遇到一樣的問題:一家公司用 PE,另一家公司用 PB,要怎麼知道誰比較便宜?這個問題應該比「美光應該給幾倍 PE」更接近我們每天真正面對的選擇,因為你的錢只有一筆。

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《投資紀律 #32|股票翻倍,要不要先賣一半?困難的不是賣出,是你賣掉之後要怎麼辦》

前幾天,有讀者提問:很多理財專家建議,股票漲到100%、200%,甚至更高的時候,應該先賣掉一些,避免後面獲利回吐。可是按照宋分文章的邏輯,翻幾倍不是重點,重要的應該是公司有沒有違背原本的投資假設。如果投資假設沒有改變,為什麼要因為股價漲太多就賣掉?還是說,漲多之後,適度獲利了結本來就是比較好的策略?

我覺得這個問題很適合寫成一篇紀律,也是股市在上漲中大多數人的煩惱。一開始,大家最害怕的是自己沒有買到。真的買到以後,煩惱卻沒有消失,只是換了一個形式:

This Subst...

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《Price-in #3|$1,133 的 LITE price in了什麼?OCS、FCC 與 NPO,還有多少沒被市場看懂?》

LITE 在10/6又創新高了。

花旗把目標價提高到1,400,提出 OCS 到 2030 年約 $110 億的市場機會,MS出了報告說,FCC 潛在限制可能從 3.2T 光模組開始,讓美國雷射供應商取得更有利的競爭位置。

This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

股價來...

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《市場解碼深度 #14|AI 可以複製技術,卻複製不了一張稀有球員卡:用科技股的方法,找下一個消費Re-rate》

當 AI Agent 消滅搜尋、比較與推薦,真正值錢的還剩什麼?從 Walmart、Target、Wayfair、Shopify 到 eBay,拆解稀缺供給、履約、信任與 Commerce Infrastructure 誰能留下 Value Capture?

這次我第一次認真研究消費股,也是我第一次用科技的方式研究消費股,我的的心得是這句話:消費股有些護城河,可能比科技更難被 AI 攻破。

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《Founder Q&A#1 | 一個分析師怎麼被自己的模型、市場、時間與錯誤慢慢訓練出判斷力?》

模型可以教你怎麼算一家公司值多少錢,但花很多年才學會的,是什麼時候相信模型、什麼時候懷疑自己,以及當證據彼此矛盾時,到底該怎麼做決定?

這一季 Founder Q&A 收到這八個問題之後,我放了非常久。不是因為不知道怎麼回答。恰恰相反,這八題如果用分析師平常最熟悉的方式回答,每一題都可以很快變成一張表。

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  • 美股送分題

    現役美股分析師|給你機構的釣竿,跟機構一起釣到大魚 \ud83c\udfa3用機構的方式,拆解市場如何定價 ———市場解碼深度、分析師底層系統、Coverage Universe、週末投資紀律

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