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美股送分題

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用分析師的視角,寫市場真正如何被判斷,而不是如何被解讀,把sellside與buyside的決策流程,翻譯成投資人看的懂的語言

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Artwork for 美股送分題

Latest Issues

《Coverage Universe |投資假設驗證日誌#3 》2026.09|AI需求繼續成長之後,18家公司誰能把證據變成下一輪現金流?|Coverage Universe 季度調整公告

尚未被市場完全定價的假設,這個月又往前走了多少?

又到了每月的Coverage Universe Update,如果你是新加入的讀者,歡迎先到第一篇Coverage Universe開始(點擊),那一篇會有閱讀前說明、本系列內容規劃、目前追蹤公司有哪些、Investment Dashboard 評分方式、Coverage Universe 未來更新規劃,以及特定公司re-rate的理由做出更深入的補充。

5 days ago
36
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《投資紀律#30|高 Beta 股第二波又來了:你現在買進,是因為 Alpha 重新變大,還是只是不想再錯過一次?》

最近資金又重新回到半導體,尤其過去一年漲幅最大的那些族群,在經歷一段整理、質疑與估值壓縮之後,其中一部分公司開始帶著新的訂單、定價能力與獲利預期,重新回到市場中心。

也就是很多人在等待的:高 Beta 族群第二波。

This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

可是第二波行情...

7 days ago
136
12

《宋分|分析師底層系統 #6》從一份10-Q到目標價:手把手建立NVDA第一個Model+DCF|算出合理價之後,怎麼知道不是自己在Excel裡自嗨?

前面五篇《分析師底層系統》已經從大方向學到三表以及DCF、PE的用意。

前面五篇《分析師底層系統》已經從大方向學到三表以及DCF、PE的用意。

12 days ago
77
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《投資紀律#29|為什麼「總經盤」特別難做?因為你把自己無法預測的事情,變成每天都要做的決定》

這一週,大多數只研究科技股的投資人都會有無力感,市場開始交易殖利率、每天決定股價的東西,好像突然變成了自己平常根本不研究的事情。

油價漲了多少、10年期美債殖利率會不會突破5%、CPI會不會高於預期、Fed會不會重新升息、日本資金會不會撤出美債,甚至中東局勢接下來會怎麼發展。

This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a fr...

13 days ago
120
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《市場解碼深度#12|軟體股暴跌之後為什麼突然反彈?拆解 CRM、NOW、PLTR被市場price in到哪裡?下一次re-rate要看到什麼?》

從③-A預期耗盡、③-B未來狀態惡化,到新的①′:拆解 CRM、NOW、PLTR,市場到底是在修復估值,還是真的重新相信 AI 能改寫軟體公司的長期獲利能力?

上半年市場對軟體的擔憂相信大家都知道了,市場這半年也已經有非常多文章寫軟體,所以我這篇不會再重新寫一次。這一篇是要來講最新的市場疑惑:這些Saas擔憂明明一個都還沒有完全消失,為什麼最近軟體股卻突然開始漲了?

19 days ago
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  • 美股送分題

    現役美股分析師|給你機構的釣竿,跟機構一起釣到大魚 \ud83c\udfa3用機構的方式,拆解市場如何定價 ———市場解碼深度、分析師底層系統、Coverage Universe、週末投資紀律

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