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美股送分題

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用分析師的視角,寫市場真正如何被判斷,而不是如何被解讀,把sellside與buyside的決策流程,翻譯成投資人看的懂的語言

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Latest Issues

《市場解碼深度#15|設備股現在賣會不會賣在低點?後面還有戲嗎?拆解 AMAT、LRCX、KLAC、ASML:從定價三階段到買賣決策,附操作表與下一輪轉折追蹤清單》

公開我在機構學到的三階段買賣思路

我很常被問到一個問題:機構有資源,可以買的比散戶早,散戶永遠都是起漲了才追,那散戶還能夠賺什麼?

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因為財報季+還在重新評估每一家公司的風險與目標價,這週的投資紀律不會像過去那樣長篇,但我會把近期遇到最值得拿出來探討的問題寫成具體的方法。我們開始吧!


有一位投資人打開自己的帳戶,決定今天一定要減碼。他知道自己的部位太大,市場只要再跌一段,晚上大概又要睡不好。可是,當他真的把每一檔股票打開來看,事情突然變得很困難:

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《Price-in#6|$220 的 COHR,已經反映多少 AI 融資與升息風險?抄底前必看》

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看多的人說,外資對 FY2028 的 EPS 預估已經在 13~16 美元,現在只有十幾倍,太便宜了。看空的人說,這些獲利都建立在 AI 資本支出繼續成長的前提上。如果戰爭推高通膨、資金成本上升,AI 客戶又開始面臨融資壓力,今天看起來便宜的 EPS,可能根本不會出現。

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看多的人會說,台積電的需求還是很強,外資繼續提高 EPS,股價卻跌了,估值自然更有吸引力。擔心的人則會問,如果客戶未來沒有足夠資金,今天排好的訂單與擴產,最後能不能變成現金?

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  • 美股送分題

    現役美股分析師|給你機構的釣竿,跟機構一起釣到大魚 🎣用機構的方式,拆解市場如何定價 ———市場解碼深度、分析師底層系統、Coverage Universe、週末投資紀律、Price-in

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