90s.pm.investing
90後PM｜拒絕童話故事，堅持用科學畫樹，走出個人投資者的黑暗時代、邁向啟蒙 ｜所有言論皆為學術研究用途，不構成任何投資意見
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 224 | Founded | 9 months ago | Last Issue | 3 days ago |
| Active | Language |  ZH-TW | |||
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90spminvesting.substack.comLatest Issues
Fortinet, Inc. | FTNT - 我們畫樹
換機潮過後，FTNT 會被當作 Palo Alto 一類平台級安全公司定價，還是網絡安全設備商？
一、Fortinet, Inc.是誰？
SailPoint （SAIL）
資安Saas ，還是統一管治人類、機器及 AI 代理的 Agentic identity 平台？
一、SailPoint 是誰？
樹的量化筆記 104 : 隨機漫步
前篇介紹的統計學語言（moments) ，用來描述一個隨機數值：平均落在哪裡、起伏有多大、分佈是什麼形狀。這一篇把時間加進來，看看同一件事重複很多次之後，結果會怎樣改變。
這與我們每天看市場的方式直接相關。
測試1 ： 一項資產的年化波動是 30%，換算成一日是多少？
把 30% 除以 252 個交易日，得到約 0.12%？正確答案是1.9%，相差約 16 倍。
測試 2：市場連升五日，又有多值得注意？
假設每天升跌的機會各半，而且互相獨立，一年 250 個...
怎樣做一份你自己敢信的估值
你有沒有試過，做完一份估值，自己都不太信？
模型跑出來，目標價比現價高三成。你看著那個數，心裡沒有底：折現率是你隨手選的，增長率是你覺得差不多的，同業是你順手抓的。每一格都填了，每一格都可以填另一個數，而你說不出為什麼是這個不是那個。
這篇文講的是，怎樣做一份你自己敢信的估值。
你以為估值的問題是算不準，其實是太多數字由你說了算
沒信心的時候，多數人的反應是學一個更大的模型：去學 DCF，把公司未來十年賺的錢一年一年寫出來，再折算回今天。可是模型越...
Okta, Inc.｜OKTA - 我們畫樹
Identity Control for AI Agents? 假設驅動 | 相互獨立 | 完全窮盡
一、Okta 是誰？
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90後PM｜投資筆記｜拒絕童話故事，堅持樹狀思維、科學驗證｜每個人都有能力做高品質的投資決策｜所有頻道的發言只作研究用途，不構成任何投資建議，投資人應獨立判斷，審慎評估並自負風險
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