Resolution Pending
AaronStories, prices, and strange incentives from prediction markets.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 7 | Founded | 3 months ago | Last Issue | a month ago |
| Active | |||||
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resolutionpending.substack.comLatest Issues
Who kept buying the Rams at one cent
Kalshi shows 46.0 million contracts traded on Thursday’s game, 35.4 million during play. I recorded every book update and every trade on both markets and lined them up against ESPN’s play-by-play. All prices below are expressed in Rams to w...
For the Love of Prediction
Me playing poker with one of my older brothers. I’m on the left.
Resolution Pending is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
On the way to Phish shows at Mad...
Wisconsin Democratic Primary: 8 Flips in 80 Minutes
Prices below are in cents and use one-minute volume-weighted Yes fills. County labels are the best-supported public explanations, not proven causes.
At 5:53 p.m. ET, Kalshi Politics advertised the race at Hong 95%, Crowley 5%. At 9 p.m., a...
The 22 Billion-Contract NFL Game-Winner Season
It would be easier to make this forecast a month from now. By then, preseason and Week 1 will have given us more evidence and narrowed the range of plausible outcomes. I am taking the shot now, when uncertainty is high.
My estimate: 21.9B...
The Exchange That Posts Like a Casino
I’ve been all in on this space for a year and a half: building tools on the APIs, trading, making markets, writing about it. So these are my current thoughts, held the way any opinion should be held here, ready to be repriced on new informa...
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The writers behind this newsletter.
Writing Resolution Pending on prediction markets. Building Kalshinomics.
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