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Scenarica

Scenarica traces the consequential developments of our moment, from mechanism to structural shift, closing each piece with a probability-weighted scenario set. We don't predict the future. We price it.

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Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesDaily
Issues650Founded7 months agoLast Issue4 days ago
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Latest Issues

Remember the $100 Phone?

In September a single gigabyte of ordinary computer memory, the 8-gigabit DDR4 chip the industry uses as its benchmark, sold on contract for an average of $26, a record, according to TrendForce's DRAMeXchange price survey. In September 2023...

4 days ago
2
1

Sunk in the Neighbours' Waters

On 20 July 1936, ten governments meeting at a hotel on Lake Geneva signed the Montreux Convention, which decides who may sail a warship into the Black Sea. Ninety years later it also decides who may protect a merchant ship off Romania and B...

4 days ago
3

The Last Five Minutes

In a psychology experiment published in 1993, volunteers were offered a choice that should have been easy. They could repeat a painful experience, or repeat the same painful experience with some extra pain attached.

One trial required keep...

5 days ago
9

While We Were Waiting

An American homeowner can pay an extra $786 a month to buy exactly the same amount of house. On the same $320,000 balance over thirty years, replacing 3% with 7.03% adds that much to monthly principal and interest. The kitchen need not impr...

6 days ago
7

Anthropic Must File Before It Floats

Anthropic's flotation would expose the financial machinery behind one of the largest programmes of AI infrastructure spending. Its public agreements already run to more than $100 billion with AWS over ten years and $11.6 billion with Akamai...

7 days ago
4

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  • Scenarica

    Scenarica traces the consequential developments of our moment, from mechanism to structural shift, closing each piece with a probability-weighted scenario set. Built for readers who take the world seriously. We don't predict the future. We price it.

  • Frequently Asked Questions

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