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W38 週報｜聯準會升息，10 年期實質利率升到 2008 年以來最高
本週重點
聯準會 9 月 16 日升息 1 碼，是 2023 年以來首次升息，18 位官員中有 16 位預期年內再升。10 年期公債殖利率收 5.01%，推升它的是實質利率：10 年期實質殖利率 2.68%，為 2008 年以來最高；5 年期市場隱含通膨反而降 9 個基點。美元指數漲 1.10%，日銀升息當週日圓仍貶 2.44%。標普 500 持平，費半週一重挫 5.86% 後收紅 0.83%，公用事業、金融與零售類股 ETF 跌 2.4% 至 3.3%。
*...
日本央行升息，日圓反而走貶:兩張反對票讓市場押注下一步放慢
升息通常會讓一國貨幣走強，日本央行 18 日升息，日圓卻不升反貶。這次以 7 比 2 通過，政策利率從 1.0% 調高到 1.25%，是 1995 年以來最高的水準；決議在台北時間上午 10 點 54 分公布，公布前美元兌日圓約 156.17，到下午 4 點 30 分升到約 157.80，日圓來到這一週最弱的位置。
主因在於，這次升息早就反映在價格裡。決議中真正的新消息，是兩位委員投票反對升息，以及日本央行沒有交代下一次升息的時間；同一天公布的 8 月核心消費者物價指數（C...
聯準會升息 1 碼:點陣圖明年按兵不動,期貨卻定價繼續升息
聯準會 9 月 16 日以 12 比 0 通過升息 1 碼，把聯邦資金利率目標區間從 3.50% 到 3.75% 調高到 3.75% 到 4.00%，是 2023 年 7 月以來第一次升息。這一步幾乎沒有懸念。CME FedWatch 當天顯示升 1 碼的機率是 93.5%，彭博以隔夜指數交換推算，會前一天市場已經定價約 0.22 個百分點的升幅。
圖 1｜2016 年以來每次會議前一天市場預期的升息幅度與實際幅度，這次會前已定價約 0.22 個百分點。（彭博）
照理說，...
加密法案闖關失敗:Coinbase 回吐漲幅
美國參議院 9 月 15 日以 49 票對 50 票，否決了加密貨幣市場結構法案 CLARITY Act 的程序性表決。美國最大的加密貨幣交易所 Coinbase（美股代號 COIN）當天收跌 10.1%，美元穩定幣 USDC 的發行商 Circle（美股代號 CRCL）收跌 11.4%。
不過，這兩檔股票前一天才分別大漲 9.2% 與 7.5%。兩天合計，Coinbase 只比上週五低 1.8%，Circle 低 4.7%。週二跌掉的，大多是週一押法案過關的漲幅；對這項法...
晶片股重挫的真正隱碼:不是升息，是 11 月的 AI 監管風暴
9 月 14 日，南韓綜合股價指數收跌 3.26% 至 6,684.37 點，三星電子跌 4.05%、SK 海力士跌 6.35%。美股接手後，費城半導體指數收跌 5.9%，其中英特爾跌 7%、超微跌 6%、美光跌 5.6%、輝達跌 2.8%。
圖 1｜9 月 14 日南韓市場單日漲跌熱力圖:電子科技區塊全面翻黑，三星電子 −4.05%、SK 海力士 −6.35%；金融區塊的 SK 廣場 −8.17%。然而，同一張圖上的韓華航太卻逆勢上漲 5.18%。（TradingView...
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