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Latest Issues

W32 週報|PMI 擴張,就業與成本分化

本週重點

美國 7 月製造業與服務業 PMI 升至 55.6 與 54.1,但服務業就業降到 47.4,非農就業減少 2.3 萬人。第二季非農生產力年化增加 1.4%,單位勞動成本增加 1.3%,美債殖利率全週下行;台灣 7 月出口 753.0 億美元、出超 171.7 億美元。景氣仍擴張,但用工轉弱與成本壓力並存。


本報告為公開市場資料整理,所有數據以原始來源為準,不含預測,不涉及個別投資決策。

© 2026 LearnInvest · learninv...

8 days ago
3

非農轉負:招聘快停了,裁員潮還沒來

7 月初我們寫過,美國就業市場是「招聘慢了,裁員還沒來」。一個月後,後半句還成立,前半句卻更弱了。

美國 7 月非農就業減少 2.3 萬人,市場原本預估會增加約 8.7 萬人。5 月和 6 月也被大幅下修,最近三個月平均每月只增加 2 萬人。

美國企業已經大幅減少招聘,但還沒有普遍裁員;這讓 Fed 更難再升息,卻還不足以證明衰退已經開始。

招聘不只是變慢,而是快停了

這次最重要的不是 7 月單月少了 2.3 萬份工作,而是前兩個月也沒有原先想得那麼強。

5...

9 days ago
5

黃金一天漲 188 美元,非農會讓逼空續命嗎?

8 月 5 日美盤,現貨黃金單日上漲 188 美元、漲幅 4.48%,收在每盎司 4,246.79 美元,創今年 2 月以來最大單日漲幅,幅度遠超一般避險反彈。

弱 ADP、美元跌破 100 與美債殖利率下行是引信;黃金突破 4,200 美元與 50 日均線後,空頭回補進一步放大漲幅。隔一個交易日,黃金盤中再漲逾 1% 後回落,期金最後小跌 0.09%。空頭回補已經發生,主動多頭尚未把價格穩在盤中高位。

同一時間,《金融時報》引述知情人士稱,如果未來幾週的通膨數據偏熱,而...

10 days ago
5

SpaceX:AI 資本支出,是連線業務獲利的近十倍

SpaceX 公布上市後首份季報,隔日股價下跌 13.6%。但這不是一份典型的衰退財報:第二季營收 78.14 億美元,年增 92%;淨虧損從去年同期的 10.08 億美元縮至 5.41 億美元。

更有意思的是,股價下殺並沒有把散戶趕走。Yahoo 奇摩股市刊載的報導引述 Vanda Research 資料:8 月 5 日開盤首小時,散戶淨買入約 2,270 萬美元,為 SpaceX 上市 37 個交易日以來第三高;隔天又有 9.115 億股取得出售資格。短線交易因此不只是...

11 days ago
5

Samsung 記憶體獲利創高,AMD 卻跌逾 8%:AI 利潤開始往瓶頸集中

8 月 4 日美股交易時段,費城半導體指數漲逾 7%;收盤後,AMD 公布第二季財報,盤後卻跌逾 8%。

兩組財報把差異寫得很清楚。AMD 資料中心營收翻倍,第三季營收指引仍季增約 13%,但毛利率預計停在 56%。記憶體另一邊,Samsung 同時看到 DRAM 與 NAND 位元銷售創高、產業價格上行、伺服器營收占比創高;半導體部門大賺,裝置部門卻因零組件成本上升而虧損。

AI 資本支出仍在增加,但經濟利潤正在往能控制瓶頸的環節集中。AMD 下一步要證明的是營收成長能...

12 days ago
11

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