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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 109 | Founded | 10 months ago | Last Issue | 6 days ago |
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Burry 加碼京東：外賣何時能賺回投入？
7 月 17 日，《大空頭》原型 Michael Burry 表示，現在很適合在港股中尋找被低估的公司。此前他曾公開表示，以 27.58 美元加碼京東的美國存託憑證（ADR），並稱京東是自己的前三大持倉之一。
這不是新的 13F 持倉申報。Burry 旗下的 Scion 已在 2025 年 11 月撤銷投資顧問登記，最後可查的 13F 只反映 2025 年 9 月底的情況，當時沒有京東。因此，目前只能確認他曾公開表示買進，無法知道持股數量、投資組合占比或之後是否調整。
真...
費半急跌、油價領漲
本週重點
本週（7/13-7/18，市場收盤資料截至 7/17）出現清楚的領導輪替。費城半導體指數下跌 -9.97%，遠弱於標普 500 的 -1.55%；布蘭特原油則上漲 +15.91%。10 年期美債殖利率反而下降 2.8bp，顯示這次科技股壓力不是由利率上行主導。歐洲大致持平，恒生與英國上漲，因此更像半導體擁擠交易退潮與能源衝擊並行，而非所有資產同步撤離。
本報告為公開市場資料整理，所有數據以原始來源為準，不含預測，不涉及個別投資決策。
©...
Kimi K3：模型接近最強，最值錢的客戶卻留在 Cursor
這兩天 X 上最熱門的，是 Kimi K3 做出的網頁、遊戲和影片比 Fable 5、Sol 更好。重新把官方資料、獨立評測和月之暗面的產品放在一起看後，我認為 K3 確實已經進入全球第一梯隊，但只討論誰在排行榜領先，會漏掉月之暗面更重要的公司變化。
過去 K2.5 被 Cursor 拿來打造 Composer 2，證明月之暗面的模型可以走進全球熱門產品；同時也暴露一個問題：使用者付費給 Cursor，工作習慣與使用資料也留在 Cursor，底層模型反而可以被更換。
所以...
台積電交出滿分法說，半導體為什麼反而大跌？
營收創高、EPS 超預期、第三季指引高於市場預估，全年成長還上修。
照理說，這應該是一場讓半導體股大漲的法說。結果 7 月 16 日美股收盤，台積電 ADR 跌約 2.3%，費城半導體指數重挫約 4.3%，Nasdaq 也跌了 1.47%。
這至少不是台積電交得不夠好。我們的解讀是，這份法說讓市場更清楚看見另一件事：要維持這種成長，未來必須投入的資本比原先想像更多。
單日跌勢不可能由一項因素完全解釋；高預期、擁擠持倉與獲利了結也都在放大波動。但法說新增的資本支出與毛利訊...
ASML 賣的不是機器:是先進製程的曝光次數
ASML 第二季再次上調全年指引，表面看是 AI 帶動設備需求，真正值得理解的卻是半導體製造的一條隱形公式：光刻需求不只取決於晶圓投片量，也取決於每片晶圓要曝光多少次。製程越先進，關鍵圖形越難印，ASML 能收取的其實是一筆不斷增加的「曝光稅」。這不是實際稅負，而是先進製程很難避開的製造成本。
■ 一、為什麼晶片產量沒翻倍，ASML 的需求仍會成長？
ASML 第二季系統銷售結構
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第二季系統銷售 65.6 億歐元，其中 EUV 占 57%
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邏輯與...
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Institutional-Grade Valuation Model ｜ Index Investing | Data Automation | Critical Thinking (指數化投資.自動化數據分析.批判性思維)
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